@@ -11,6 +11,9 @@

 <p><a href="http://jdpressman.com/public/lwsurvey2016/2016_lw_survey_public_release_3.csv"><strong>2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Public Dataset</strong></a></p>
 <p>(Note for people looking to work with the dataset: My survey analysis code <a href="https://github.com/JD-P/lw-survey-analysis" target="_self">repository</a> includes a sqlite converter, examples, and more coming soon. It's a great way to get up and running with the dataset really quickly.)</p>
 <h1><strong>In depth analysis:</strong></h1>
+<h2><strong>Analysis Posts</strong></h2>
+<p><a href="/lw/nmk/2016_lesswrong_diaspora_survey_analysis_part_one/"><strong>Part One: Meta and Demographics</strong></a></p>
+<h2><strong>Aggregated Data</strong></h2>
 <p><strong><a href="http://jdpressman.com/public/lwsurvey2016/analysis/ea_charity_analysis.txt">Effective Altruism and Charitable Giving Analysis</a></strong></p>
 <p><strong><a href="http://jdpressman.com/public/lwsurvey2016/analysis/mental_health_analysis.txt">Mental Health Stats By Diaspora Community</a> </strong>(Including self dxers)</p>
 <p><a href="http://jdpressman.com/lw_charts_graphs.html"><strong>How Diaspora Communities Compare On Mental Health Stats</strong></a> (I suspect these charts are subtly broken somehow, will investigate later)</p>

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@

-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Summary/TL;DR:</span><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> this piece offers</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="/lw/h5e/fermi_estimates/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">Fermi Estimates</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of the value of those in EA, focusing on the distinctions between typical EA members and dedicated members (defined below). These estimates suggest that, compared to the current movement baseline, we should prioritize increasing the number of &ldquo;typical&rdquo; EA members and getting more non-EA people to behave like typical EA members, rather than getting typical EAs to become dedicated ones.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Summary/TL;DR:</span><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> this piece offers</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="/lw/h5e/fermi_estimates/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">Fermi Estimates</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of the value of those in EA, focusing on the distinctions between typical EA members and dedicated members (defined below). These estimates suggest that, compared to the current movement baseline, we should prioritize increasing the number of &ldquo;typical&rdquo; EA members and getting more non-EA people to behave like typical EA members, rather than getting typical EAs to become dedicated ones.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.3846399999999996; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">[</span><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Acknowledgments:</span><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Thanks to Tom Ash, Jon Behar, Ryan Carey, Denis Drescher, Michael Dickens, Stefan Schubert, Claire Zabel, Owen Cotton-Barratt, Ozzie Gooen, Linchuan Zheng, Chris Watkins, Julia Wise, Kyle Bogosian, Max Chapnick, Kaj Sotaja, Taryn East, Kathy Forth, Scott Weathers, Hunter Glenn, Alfredo Parra, William Kiely, &nbsp;Jay Quigley, and others who prefer to remain anonymous for looking at various draft versions of this post. Thanks to their feedback, the post underwent heavy revisions. Any remaining oversights, as well as all opinions expressed, are my responsibility.</span><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">]</span></p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.3846399999999996; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.3846399999999996; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> This article is a follow-up to "<a href="/lw/n7b/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/">Celebrating All Who Are In Effective Altruism</a>"<br /></span></p>
-<p>&nbsp;</p>
+<p><a id="more"></a></p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Introduction</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">There has been some discussion recently of whether the EA movement is</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/op/eas_image_problem/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">excessively</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> or</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sm/ea_is_elitist_should_it_stay_that_way/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">insufficiently</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> oriented toward getting typical EA members to become dedicated ones. The crux of this discussion, from a</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sn/a_call_for_mechanistic_thinking_in/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">mechanistic movement building perspective</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, is whether, compared to the current baseline:</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">There has been some discussion recently of whether the EA movement is</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/op/eas_image_problem/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">excessively</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> or</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sm/ea_is_elitist_should_it_stay_that_way/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">insufficiently</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> oriented toward getting typical EA members to become dedicated ones. The crux of this discussion, from a</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sn/a_call_for_mechanistic_thinking_in/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">mechanistic movement building perspective</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, is whether, compared to the current baseline:</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">1) The EA movement should put more efforts into attracting as many value-aligned people to the EA movement as possible and keeping them in the movement, as well as getting non-EA members to behave more like typical EAs, or</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
@@ -16,31 +16,31 @@

 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Semantics</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">A sub-branch of this discussion has focused on the terminology to use in describing those more or less engaged in the EA movement. My position is that the level of engagement is not binary, but lies on a spectrum,</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/so/against_segregating_eas/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">as noted here</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. For the sake of clarity and without claiming these are the optimal terms to use broadly, this piece will use &ldquo;typical&rdquo; for those who are closer to the end of the spectrum of casual engagement with EA, and &ldquo;</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/so/against_segregating_eas/6fb"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">dedicated</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">&rdquo; for those who are closer to the higher pole of engagement.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">A sub-branch of this discussion has focused on the terminology to use in describing those more or less engaged in the EA movement. My position is that the level of engagement is not binary, but lies on a spectrum,</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/so/against_segregating_eas/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">as noted here</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. For the sake of clarity and without claiming these are the optimal terms to use broadly, this piece will use &ldquo;typical&rdquo; for those who are closer to the end of the spectrum of casual engagement with EA, and &ldquo;</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/so/against_segregating_eas/6fb"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">dedicated</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">&rdquo; for those who are closer to the higher pole of engagement.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Fermi Estimates</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">While there&rsquo;s no reliable hard data available, we can do a Fermi estimate to start putting some approximate numbers at the actual resources, of time and money, each of these EA cohorts contribute. I will use numbers expressed publicly by others to minimize weighing the numbers with my own perspectives.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">One</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/so/against_segregating_eas/6e7"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">highly-upvoted comment</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> expressed &ldquo;I expect 80%+ of EAs and rising to be 'softcore' for the foreseeable future.&rdquo; This correlates with the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.nngroup.com/articles/participation-inequality/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">90/9/1%</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> generalization, and makes prima facie sense based on the distribution of EA group organizers versus participants, etc. So let&rsquo;s say that anywhere from 10 to 20 out of 100 EAs are closer to the dedicated pole, and this will continue to be the case as the movement grows.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">One</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/so/against_segregating_eas/6e7"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">highly-upvoted comment</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> expressed &ldquo;I expect 80%+ of EAs and rising to be 'softcore' for the foreseeable future.&rdquo; This correlates with the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.nngroup.com/articles/participation-inequality/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">90/9/1%</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> generalization, and makes prima facie sense based on the distribution of EA group organizers versus participants, etc. So let&rsquo;s say that anywhere from 10 to 20 out of 100 EAs are closer to the dedicated pole, and this will continue to be the case as the movement grows.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Another</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6bf"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">highly-upvoted comment</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> suggests that &ldquo;a fully committed altruist usually accomplishes about as much as three to six people who do little beyond pledging.&rdquo; This might be a more controversial claim than the previous one.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Another</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6bf"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">highly-upvoted comment</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> suggests that &ldquo;a fully committed altruist usually accomplishes about as much as three to six people who do little beyond pledging.&rdquo; This might be a more controversial claim than the previous one.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">First, the comment itself was strongly advocating for focusing more on getting more dedicated EA members rather than typical ones, and thus might have potentially exaggerated the impact of dedicated EA participants. In fact, the comment was in response to a post I made and went against the sentiments I expressed in that post, which was one reason I chose these numbers, to avoid going with numbers that matched my intuitions.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Nonetheless, I think that the 3-6 times impact of dedicated EA members may not be an exaggeration, for several reasons: 1) Those closer to the dedicated pole would likely</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/softcore-eas-vs-hardcore-eas/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">provide more resources</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, of time and money, to advance global flourishing than ones closer to the typical end of the spectrum; 2) Those more dedicated would be more exposed and informed about the complex issues related to EA, such as the challenges of cause prioritization and evaluating QALYs for systemic intervention and existential risk, and can contribute more to creating the memetic and organization infrastructure for the most effective EA movement; 3) On a related note, dedicated EA participants would also likely search harder for the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/sites/givingwhatwecan.org/files/attachments/moral_imperative.pdf"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">most impactful and cost-effective</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> places to give rather than just go with GiveWell&rsquo;s top picks, multiplying the impact of their giving by supporting &ldquo;</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sc/on_running_fundraisers_for_weird_charities/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">weird</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">&rdquo; charities and</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/qk/maximizing_donations_to_effective_charities/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">meta-charities</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, etc.; 4) Those more dedicated would channel their resources of time and skills more effectively into advancing global flourishing than typical EAs, ranging from volunteer work to choosing and switching careers based on a desire to optimize global flourishing and fill</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://80000hours.org/2015/11/why-you-should-focus-more-on-talent-gaps-not-funding-gaps/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">talent gaps</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. </span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Nonetheless, I think that the 3-6 times impact of dedicated EA members may not be an exaggeration, for several reasons: 1) Those closer to the dedicated pole would likely</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/softcore-eas-vs-hardcore-eas/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">provide more resources</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, of time and money, to advance global flourishing than ones closer to the typical end of the spectrum; 2) Those more dedicated would be more exposed and informed about the complex issues related to EA, such as the challenges of cause prioritization and evaluating QALYs for systemic intervention and existential risk, and can contribute more to creating the memetic and organization infrastructure for the most effective EA movement; 3) On a related note, dedicated EA participants would also likely search harder for the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/sites/givingwhatwecan.org/files/attachments/moral_imperative.pdf"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">most impactful and cost-effective</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> places to give rather than just go with GiveWell&rsquo;s top picks, multiplying the impact of their giving by supporting &ldquo;</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sc/on_running_fundraisers_for_weird_charities/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">weird</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">&rdquo; charities and</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/qk/maximizing_donations_to_effective_charities/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">meta-charities</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, etc.; 4) Those more dedicated would channel their resources of time and skills more effectively into advancing global flourishing than typical EAs, ranging from volunteer work to choosing and switching careers based on a desire to optimize global flourishing and fill</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://80000hours.org/2015/11/why-you-should-focus-more-on-talent-gaps-not-funding-gaps/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">talent gaps</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">The attention of some readers might be drawn to EA notables such as Peter Singer, William MacAskill, Tom Ash, Jon Behar, Ryan Carey, Brian Tomasik, Kerry Vaughn, Tyler Alterman, Julia Wise, Owen Cotton-Barratt, Ozzie Gooen, and others, including frequent EA Forum participants, when evaluating dedicated EA members. Indeed, they do more good, much more good, than 3-6X times the good done by typical EA participants, through a combination of convincing many more people to do EA-aligned activities and building the infrastructure of the EA movement. Yet we should remember that such notables </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attentional_bias"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">are atypical</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, and do not represent the vast majority of dedicated EA members, and their contributions fold into the overall 3-6X contributions of dedicated people. Separately, one reader of the draft version suggested we should come up with an additional term for such EA notables, such as &ldquo;rock stars,&rdquo; who do more than 100X as much good as a typical EA participant, and I will leave that for readers to discuss in the comments. </span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">The attention of some readers might be drawn to EA notables such as Peter Singer, William MacAskill, Tom Ash, Jon Behar, Ryan Carey, Brian Tomasik, Kerry Vaughn, Tyler Alterman, Julia Wise, Owen Cotton-Barratt, Ozzie Gooen, and others, including frequent EA Forum participants, when evaluating dedicated EA members. Indeed, they do more good, much more good, than 3-6X times the good done by typical EA participants, through a combination of convincing many more people to do EA-aligned activities and building the infrastructure of the EA movement. Yet we should remember that such notables </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attentional_bias"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">are atypical</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, and do not represent the vast majority of dedicated EA members, and their contributions fold into the overall 3-6X contributions of dedicated people. Separately, one reader of the draft version suggested we should come up with an additional term for such EA notables, such as &ldquo;rock stars,&rdquo; who do more than 100X as much good as a typical EA participant, and I will leave that for readers to discuss in the comments. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">I hope this shows why I think the 3-6 times impact of dedicated EA members is plausible, and I plan to use it in this analysis. Using the handy Guesstimate app created by Ozzie Gooen, here is a</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.getguesstimate.com/models/3949"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">link to a model</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> that shows the results of this comparison. You can also see a screenshot of the model below.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">I hope this shows why I think the 3-6 times impact of dedicated EA members is plausible, and I plan to use it in this analysis. Using the handy Guesstimate app created by Ozzie Gooen, here is a</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.getguesstimate.com/models/3949"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">link to a model</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> that shows the results of this comparison. You can also see a screenshot of the model below.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img style="border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad); -webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad);" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/5TYThBIDattr2NmpZ4H6y6r6NSfQFBBsw8NJ9ESrqoyeapLCN8se6kYzQkx5qRuvL66aT8sXusb8e1RLnr6P99pxz6FG1ZqR_ctN2r_vcuDRXNqpV5VKaMVvIuq5mT6UrtynrEVX" alt="" width="624" height="220" /></span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Now, these are Fermi estimates, and I invite you to use this model to put in your own estimates and see what you come up with. After all, the upvoting of the comments above does not indicate that these numbers are correct in any objective sense. For instance, you might believe that the numbers for the impact of dedicated EA members are in fact exaggerated, despite the defence I provided above, or understated. It would be helpful if whatever numbers you choose come from a source outside of yourself to minimize letting personal intuitions weigh the numbers in favor of your preferred position, but use your own judgment, of course.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">We should also compare the resource contributions of typical and dedicated EA participants to an ordinary member of the general public who is not value-aligned with the EA movement to get a better grasp on the value provided to improving the world by EA members. Let&rsquo;s say a typical member of the general public</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://nccs.urban.org/nccs/statistics/Charitable-Giving-in-America-Some-Facts-and-Figures.cfm"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">contributes 3.5% of her/his resources</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> to charitable causes, both time and money. By comparison, let&rsquo;s say a typical EA member contributes around 10% of her/his resources, in various combinations of time and money, to charity. Being generous, we can estimate that the resources provided by non-EAs are ~100 times less impactful than that of EA participants due to the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://reducing-suffering.org/why-charities-dont-differ-astronomically-in-cost-effectiveness/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">higher effectiveness</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of EA-endorsed charities.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">We should also compare the resource contributions of typical and dedicated EA participants to an ordinary member of the general public who is not value-aligned with the EA movement to get a better grasp on the value provided to improving the world by EA members. Let&rsquo;s say a typical member of the general public</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://nccs.urban.org/nccs/statistics/Charitable-Giving-in-America-Some-Facts-and-Figures.cfm"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">contributes 3.5% of her/his resources</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> to charitable causes, both time and money. By comparison, let&rsquo;s say a typical EA member contributes around 10% of her/his resources, in various combinations of time and money, to charity. Being generous, we can estimate that the resources provided by non-EAs are ~100 times less impactful than that of EA participants due to the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://reducing-suffering.org/why-charities-dont-differ-astronomically-in-cost-effectiveness/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">higher effectiveness</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of EA-endorsed charities.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Let&rsquo;s compare the impact of such giving. Here is a </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.getguesstimate.com/models/3950"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">link to a model</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> that does so, and here is a screenshot of the model.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Let&rsquo;s compare the impact of such giving. Here is a </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.getguesstimate.com/models/3950"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">link to a model</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> that does so, and here is a screenshot of the model.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img style="border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad); -webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad);" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/fiDqXe688tFCZLWJxNADoHhFCO1D2NeWxpZtxv4f836-2L-hcrWyD4fpSBrX186C1rQ-YSAkxAEZwi2lXJrUUnjUOEIX7CFzsCNqk50RuGsa4F8Af57HnCQajF_jXEOSYmbLHtqy" alt="" width="624" height="185" /></span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
@@ -48,7 +48,7 @@

 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Implications</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">1) Getting a non-EA to behave like like a typical EA member yields an increase in global flourishing per individual from ~3.5 to ~1000</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Utility"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">utilons</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. This is a huge increase, one that would be worthwhile to think about in percentage terms to address </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/6v/scope_insensitivity/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">scope insensitivity</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> - ~28500%. Losing a typical EA member or not gaining one in the first place reduces global flourishing by decreasing ~1000 utilons to ~3.5, so a ~28500% reduction per person lost.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">1) Getting a non-EA to behave like like a typical EA member yields an increase in global flourishing per individual from ~3.5 to ~1000</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Utility"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">utilons</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. This is a huge increase, one that would be worthwhile to think about in percentage terms to address </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/6v/scope_insensitivity/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">scope insensitivity</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> - ~28500%. Losing a typical EA member or not gaining one in the first place reduces global flourishing by decreasing ~1000 utilons to ~3.5, so a ~28500% reduction per person lost.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2) Moving a typical EA to a dedicated EA results in a ~450% increase in global flourishing, from ~1000 to ~4500, and a dedicated EA becoming a typical EA results in a &nbsp;~450% decrease in global flourishing, from ~4500 to ~1000.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
@@ -56,73 +56,73 @@

 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">4) Typical EA members as a cohort provide substantially more total value, ~25% more, in resources of time and money contributing to EA efforts to advance global flourishing than dedicated EA members. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">4A) This Fermi estimate suggests that the EA movement does not function according to the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">Pareto principle</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, with 80% of the output produced by 20% of the input. For the sake of epistemic honesty and for the purpose of movement-building, it would be beneficial to publicly acknowledge and recognize the contributions of typical EA movement members. </span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">4A) This Fermi estimate suggests that the EA movement does not function according to the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">Pareto principle</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, with 80% of the output produced by 20% of the input. For the sake of epistemic honesty and for the purpose of movement-building, it would be beneficial to publicly acknowledge and recognize the contributions of typical EA movement members. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">4B) Additionally, for the sake of epistemic honesty, it&rsquo;s important to acknowledge that other ways of calculating the impact of typical and dedicated EA participants might result in different estimates, depending on what you optimize for. For example, if you personally optimize for reducing </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/t3/some_considerations_for_different_ways_to_reduce/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">existential risk</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> or </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/bn/the_new_animal_charity_evaluators_recommendations/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">animal suffering</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, it might be that dedicated EA members spend more of their resources on those areas of EA activism as opposed to the more mainstream focus of addressing global poverty. </span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">4B) Additionally, for the sake of epistemic honesty, it&rsquo;s important to acknowledge that other ways of calculating the impact of typical and dedicated EA participants might result in different estimates, depending on what you optimize for. For example, if you personally optimize for reducing </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/t3/some_considerations_for_different_ways_to_reduce/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">existential risk</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> or </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/bn/the_new_animal_charity_evaluators_recommendations/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">animal suffering</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, it might be that dedicated EA members spend more of their resources on those areas of EA activism as opposed to the more mainstream focus of addressing global poverty. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Discussion</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">What other numbers would be useful?</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">What other numbers would be useful?</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">While the numbers on the benefits of focusing on getting non-EAs to behave more like typical EA members are prima facie convincing, we need to acknowledge that there are some numbers that we don&rsquo;t have that are salient, and that are currently too vague for doing a Fermi estimate.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">For example, it would be great to know how many resources it takes to get a non-EA to behave like an EA member. This is an area I have some knowledge about. Let&rsquo;s take exposure to an EA-themed article as an example. I published</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gleb-tsipursky/how-to-avoid-feeling-chea_b_8635224.html"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">this article</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> on The Huffington Post, which was shared widely on social media. As you'll see from</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1079797162070769&amp;id=468695349847623"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">this Facebook comment on my personal page</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, it helped convince someone to decide to donate to effective charities. Furthermore, this comment is from someone who is the leader of a large secular group in Houston, and he thus has an impact on a number of other people. Since people rarely make actual comments, and far from all are fans of my Facebook page, we can estimate that many more made similar decisions but did not comment about it.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">For example, it would be great to know how many resources it takes to get a non-EA to behave like an EA member. This is an area I have some knowledge about. Let&rsquo;s take exposure to an EA-themed article as an example. I published</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gleb-tsipursky/how-to-avoid-feeling-chea_b_8635224.html"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">this article</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> on The Huffington Post, which was shared widely on social media. As you'll see from</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1079797162070769&amp;id=468695349847623"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">this Facebook comment on my personal page</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, it helped convince someone to decide to donate to effective charities. Furthermore, this comment is from someone who is the leader of a large secular group in Houston, and he thus has an impact on a number of other people. Since people rarely make actual comments, and far from all are fans of my Facebook page, we can estimate that many more made similar decisions but did not comment about it.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Another piece of evidence is that people who clicked over to the GiveDirectly website from</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gleb-tsipursky/multiply-your-generosity-_b_8872250.html"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">this article</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> I wrote donated $500, according to </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://imgur.com/cnbobQM"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">internal GiveDirectly stats</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. It is highly likely that people who clicked through and immediately donated as a result of reading the article just found out about GiveDirectly, and made a test donation as </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://nonprofitquarterly.org/2013/08/15/donor-retention-what-do-we-know-what-can-we-do-about-it/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">is typical</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> for initial nonprofit donations - their </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://101fundraising.org/2011/11/the-almost-magic-formula-of-lifetime-value-estimation/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">lifetime value of donations</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> will be worth much more to GiveDirectly. Likewise, the vast majority of people who will have found out about GiveDirectly from the article will take a while to donate as they research the topic and consider their donations. After all, an immediate donation from an article is pretty rare, usually people proceed much more slowly through the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.causevox.com/blog/sales-funnel-nonprofits/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">4 steps of the nonprofit sales funnel</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> and take time to consider and evaluate the nonprofit before donating.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Another piece of evidence is that people who clicked over to the GiveDirectly website from</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gleb-tsipursky/multiply-your-generosity-_b_8872250.html"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">this article</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> I wrote donated $500, according to </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://imgur.com/cnbobQM"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">internal GiveDirectly stats</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. It is highly likely that people who clicked through and immediately donated as a result of reading the article just found out about GiveDirectly, and made a test donation as </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://nonprofitquarterly.org/2013/08/15/donor-retention-what-do-we-know-what-can-we-do-about-it/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">is typical</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> for initial nonprofit donations - their </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://101fundraising.org/2011/11/the-almost-magic-formula-of-lifetime-value-estimation/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">lifetime value of donations</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> will be worth much more to GiveDirectly. Likewise, the vast majority of people who will have found out about GiveDirectly from the article will take a while to donate as they research the topic and consider their donations. After all, an immediate donation from an article is pretty rare, usually people proceed much more slowly through the</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.causevox.com/blog/sales-funnel-nonprofits/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">4 steps of the nonprofit sales funnel</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> and take time to consider and evaluate the nonprofit before donating.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Now, each of these articles took about 15 hours of total labor to write and edit for me, 10 hours for other EA participants collaborating with me to edit, and about 5 hours per article to place and promote.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Yet these numbers represent my labor in particular, and I</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://impact.hackpad.com/Intentional-Insights-Spreading-Effective-Altruism-Effectively-to-Broad-Audiences-UTiM2viNkrp"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">specialize in</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> promoting EA-themed effective giving to broad audiences. We need more numbers and data to get a better estimate of the average impact of such articles, and how much utility there is from those other than me working on this area. We also need numbers on the multitude of other areas of activity that can get ordinary people to behave like EA members, such as</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/Giving-Games"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">Giving Games</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> and other activities. I would invite readers who have more familiarity with these areas of activity to provide their thoughts in comments, and also with your own models in the Guesstimate app.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Yet these numbers represent my labor in particular, and I</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://impact.hackpad.com/Intentional-Insights-Spreading-Effective-Altruism-Effectively-to-Broad-Audiences-UTiM2viNkrp"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">specialize in</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> promoting EA-themed effective giving to broad audiences. We need more numbers and data to get a better estimate of the average impact of such articles, and how much utility there is from those other than me working on this area. We also need numbers on the multitude of other areas of activity that can get ordinary people to behave like EA members, such as</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/Giving-Games"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">Giving Games</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> and other activities. I would invite readers who have more familiarity with these areas of activity to provide their thoughts in comments, and also with your own models in the Guesstimate app.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Another set of numbers that we don&rsquo;t have, and it would be great to have, is figuring out how many resources it takes to get a typical EA participant to become a dedicated one. In doing so, we also need to estimate how much risk there is of causing a typical EA member to leave the movement due to perception of high demands, and calculate that downside. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">This is not an area I specialize in, and I hope some readers who do will leave their thoughts in comments, and also consider creating Guesstimate models of their own.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">What are specific steps we can take to advance getting non-EAs to behave more like typical EAs?</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">What are specific steps we can take to advance getting non-EAs to behave more like typical EAs?</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">1) One way of doing so is promoting EA to those who are value aligned. We</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCOOtc-sofM&amp;feature=youtu.be"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">should be wary</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of promoting the EA movement to those who are not value aligned, due to the downside of flooding the EA movement with non value-aligned people.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">1) One way of doing so is promoting EA to those who are value aligned. We</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCOOtc-sofM&amp;feature=youtu.be"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">should be wary</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of promoting the EA movement to those who are not value aligned, due to the downside of flooding the EA movement with non value-aligned people.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2) Another way is getting non-EAs to behave more like typical EAs without getting non-value aligned people into the EA movement. Promoting EA-themed</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/qv/effective_giving_vs_effective_altruism/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">effective giving</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> ideas is one way of getting ordinary people to behave more like EAs without the downside of flooding the EA movement with non value-aligned members. For instance, if the ~3.5% of resources that non-EAs give to improving the world can be redirected to EA causes, this would result in ~3.5 utilons * ~100 increase in impact, so ~350 utilons instead of ~3.5. This is a ~10000% increase in EA-aligned efforts to advance global flourishing, regardless of whether or not the non-EA becomes value-aligned and joins the EA movement. Moreover, it is likely that if people are persuaded to act more like EA members, they will</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/s1/intentional_insights_and_the_ea_movement_q_a/65w"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">shift their values</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> to grow more value aligned, and would eventually be ready to join the EA movement.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2) Another way is getting non-EAs to behave more like typical EAs without getting non-value aligned people into the EA movement. Promoting EA-themed</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/qv/effective_giving_vs_effective_altruism/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">effective giving</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> ideas is one way of getting ordinary people to behave more like EAs without the downside of flooding the EA movement with non value-aligned members. For instance, if the ~3.5% of resources that non-EAs give to improving the world can be redirected to EA causes, this would result in ~3.5 utilons * ~100 increase in impact, so ~350 utilons instead of ~3.5. This is a ~10000% increase in EA-aligned efforts to advance global flourishing, regardless of whether or not the non-EA becomes value-aligned and joins the EA movement. Moreover, it is likely that if people are persuaded to act more like EA members, they will</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/s1/intentional_insights_and_the_ea_movement_q_a/65w"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">shift their values</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> to grow more value aligned, and would eventually be ready to join the EA movement.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2A) Promoting effective giving includes publishing articles for a broad audience. Such articles have the promise of hitting a lot of people at once, but their impact is varied.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2B) Promoting effective giving to social elites who have lots of money to give. This can include a variety of strategies from promoting effective giving to </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://reg-charity.org/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">niche well-off audiences</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, to selectively promoting pre-existing elite-giving strategies that are aligned with EA strategies. An example of the latter might be to write articles promoting well-known charities that engage in EA-like giving - the Gates Foundation, Good Ventures - while also promoting EA concepts such as data-driven giving, solving the </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.utilitarian.net/singer/by/199704--.htm"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">drowning child problem</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, etc. </span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2B) Promoting effective giving to social elites who have lots of money to give. This can include a variety of strategies from promoting effective giving to </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://reg-charity.org/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">niche well-off audiences</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, to selectively promoting pre-existing elite-giving strategies that are aligned with EA strategies. An example of the latter might be to write articles promoting well-known charities that engage in EA-like giving - the Gates Foundation, Good Ventures - while also promoting EA concepts such as data-driven giving, solving the </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.utilitarian.net/singer/by/199704--.htm"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">drowning child problem</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, etc. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2B1) Getting elites to change their giving strategies takes more effort than getting non-elites to do so, since there are many competing for their attention and wealth, but we currently don&rsquo;t have sufficient evidence to compare the trade-offs of focusing on either group. I suspect in any case we should pursue promoting EA-themed effective giving both to elites and non-elites.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2C) selectively promoting pre-existing elite-giving strategies that are aligned with EA strategies eg writing articles promoting charities that you can pick and choose from whatever the Gates foundation, zuckerberg, theil or whomever is flavour-of-the-month and giving (but only choose stuff that promotes EA-like giving).</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2C) Providing</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://impact.hackpad.com/Local-effective-altruism-network-1MPaKnomSGv"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">materials and resources</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> to local EA groups to enable them to promote effective giving on a local level, as well as teaching them how to do so. One project relevant to the former might be to create a marketing resource bank for all EAs to use, with materials to promote effective giving to broad audiences, and the EA movement to value-aligned people. One point relevant to the latter might be to hold workathons training EA participants on marketing and promotion. </span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2C) Providing</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://impact.hackpad.com/Local-effective-altruism-network-1MPaKnomSGv"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">materials and resources</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> to local EA groups to enable them to promote effective giving on a local level, as well as teaching them how to do so. One project relevant to the former might be to create a marketing resource bank for all EAs to use, with materials to promote effective giving to broad audiences, and the EA movement to value-aligned people. One point relevant to the latter might be to hold workathons training EA participants on marketing and promotion. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2D) Promoting</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://secularstudents.org/givinggame"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">effective giving to gatekeepers and influencers</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> who would then promote effective giving to their own audience due to mutually compatible incentives. For example, a number of organizations with affiliates who don&rsquo;t have an inherent interest in EA might want to run Giving Games for other reasons, such as because they believe their affiliate members would benefit from them.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2D) Promoting</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://secularstudents.org/givinggame"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">effective giving to gatekeepers and influencers</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> who would then promote effective giving to their own audience due to mutually compatible incentives. For example, a number of organizations with affiliates who don&rsquo;t have an inherent interest in EA might want to run Giving Games for other reasons, such as because they believe their affiliate members would benefit from them.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">Are the negative consequences of high expectations and pressure that bad?</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">Are the negative consequences of high expectations and pressure that bad?</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Now, some people might doubt that we lose EA members due to the pressure of high expectations and burnout. Yet there are many people who leave the EA movement because of the perception that they are only really welcome if they do as much as they can to contribute to EA causes. </span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Doing so can be exhausting and lead to burnout, as it</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6dx"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">did for me</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. While I did not choose to leave, many do leave the movement because of burnout. I spoke to many about this after I started sharing my story publicly a while ago.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Doing so can be exhausting and lead to burnout, as it</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6dx"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">did for me</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. While I did not choose to leave, many do leave the movement because of burnout. I spoke to many about this after I started sharing my story publicly a while ago.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Others leave because their circumstances change. I spoke to people who were donating 50% of their income, and then their circumstances changed &ndash; job loss, moving, other transitions &ndash; and they could not afford to do so anymore. Rather than suffer what they perceived as the stigma of not being good enough anymore, they disengaged from the movement. Others were contributing a huge amount of time to the movement during their college years, but then graduate, move, and lose that community support that kept their activism going and gave them a strong sense of purpose. Because of</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">survivorship bias</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, most of those in the movement don&rsquo;t see them as they participate less and less, and they fade quietly into the background, resulting in huge losses of money and time/skills for the movement.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 1.9871999999999999; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Others leave because their circumstances change. I spoke to people who were donating 50% of their income, and then their circumstances changed &ndash; job loss, moving, other transitions &ndash; and they could not afford to do so anymore. Rather than suffer what they perceived as the stigma of not being good enough anymore, they disengaged from the movement. Others were contributing a huge amount of time to the movement during their college years, but then graduate, move, and lose that community support that kept their activism going and gave them a strong sense of purpose. Because of</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">survivorship bias</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, most of those in the movement don&rsquo;t see them as they participate less and less, and they fade quietly into the background, resulting in huge losses of money and time/skills for the movement.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Others choose not to join in the first place because of the high expectations, even those who are otherwise value-aligned. For instance, Taryn describes how she is value aligned with EA and does EA-themed activities. Yet she is reluctant to identify with the EA movement due to the "general unspoken feeling of 'you're not doing enough unless you meet our high expectations,'" as expressed by in her Facebook comments</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/144017955332/permalink/10156381603480333/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">here</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. Or take</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6c5"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">the comments</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of Kaj here (who permitted me to cite him): &ldquo;Datapoint - I too have felt unsure whether I'm doing enough to justifiably call myself EA. (I have both worked for and donated to MIRI, ran a birthday fundraiser for EA causes, organized</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/9g/tell_us_about_your_recent_ea_activities/zi"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">an introductory EA event</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> where I was the main speaker, and organized a few EA meetups. But my regular donations are pretty tiny and I'm not sure of how much impact the-stuff-that-I've-done-so-far will have in the end, so I still have occasional emotional doubts about claiming the label.)&rdquo;</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Others choose not to join in the first place because of the high expectations, even those who are otherwise value-aligned. For instance, Taryn describes how she is value aligned with EA and does EA-themed activities. Yet she is reluctant to identify with the EA movement due to the "general unspoken feeling of 'you're not doing enough unless you meet our high expectations,'" as expressed by in her Facebook comments</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/144017955332/permalink/10156381603480333/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">here</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">. Or take</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6c5"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">the comments</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of Kaj here (who permitted me to cite him): &ldquo;Datapoint - I too have felt unsure whether I'm doing enough to justifiably call myself EA. (I have both worked for and donated to MIRI, ran a birthday fundraiser for EA causes, organized</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/9g/tell_us_about_your_recent_ea_activities/zi"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">an introductory EA event</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> where I was the main speaker, and organized a few EA meetups. But my regular donations are pretty tiny and I'm not sure of how much impact the-stuff-that-I've-done-so-far will have in the end, so I still have occasional emotional doubts about claiming the label.)&rdquo;</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">How many of you think Kaj should not identify with the EA movement? However, the only</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3268936/Massachusetts-couple-lives-six-percent-income-away-100-000-year-needs-most.html"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">role models</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> in the EA movement right now are those who are highly involved and committed. There are no real steps taken to acknowledge and celebrating typical EA members for the benefits they bring to the movement. Some easy steps to celebrate typical EA participants, and ease off the pressure to do whatever they can, will likely result in a significant overall gain for the EA movement.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">How many of you think Kaj should not identify with the EA movement? However, the only</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3268936/Massachusetts-couple-lives-six-percent-income-away-100-000-year-needs-most.html"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">role models</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> in the EA movement right now are those who are highly involved and committed. There are no real steps taken to acknowledge and celebrating typical EA members for the benefits they bring to the movement. Some easy steps to celebrate typical EA participants, and ease off the pressure to do whatever they can, will likely result in a significant overall gain for the EA movement.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">What are steps we can take to address these problems?</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">What are steps we can take to address these problems?</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">1) We can encourage publications of articles that give typical EA members the recognition they deserve for doing so much for the movement, more than dedicated ones according to the calculations above.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2) We can</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FSHsvUNmmmtZ2fI_F3V8IZVjnxSeAORhr5LFr1vV5ZY/edit#gid=0"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">invite</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> typical EA members to speak about their experiences at the 2016 EA Global.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">2) We can</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FSHsvUNmmmtZ2fI_F3V8IZVjnxSeAORhr5LFr1vV5ZY/edit#gid=0"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #0000ff; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">invite</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> typical EA members to speak about their experiences at the 2016 EA Global.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">3) We can</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sb/ea_interview_series_january_2016_perumal_gandhi/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">publish interviews</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> with typical EAs.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">3) We can</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sb/ea_interview_series_january_2016_perumal_gandhi/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">publish interviews</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> with typical EAs.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">4) We can</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/effective.altruists/permalink/1006477899408567/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">feature</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> a few typical EA members on the redesigned version of effectivealtruism.org.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">4) We can</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/effective.altruists/permalink/1006477899408567/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">feature</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> a few typical EA members on the redesigned version of effectivealtruism.org.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">5) We can pay more attention to</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/p5/burnout_and_selfcare/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">burnout and self-care</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> than we currently do, and highlight the importance for those trying to change the world to orient toward the long term, thinking of their civic engagement as a marathon and not a sprint.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">5) We can pay more attention to</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/p5/burnout_and_selfcare/"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">burnout and self-care</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> than we currently do, and highlight the importance for those trying to change the world to orient toward the long term, thinking of their civic engagement as a marathon and not a sprint.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">6) We can also celebrate the people who make small steps that carry them up the spectrum of engagement: those who go from 1% to 5% and those who go from 5 to 10% of their monetary donations; those who take TLYCS or the GWWC pledge; those who increase their level of volunteering from being EA group members to EA group organizers, who start to give EA talks or host</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/Giving-Games"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">Giving Games</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, who start to write blog post about their EA engagement, who start to volunteer for EA meta-charities or effective direct-action charities. The key is to encourage and praise multiple </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/7k/what_small_things_can_an_ea_do/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">small steps</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> and multiple paths, for instance for people that don't want to do talks but are ok with writing blog-posts and vice versa, in order that people don't get discouraged thinking you only support a person if they choose a particular activity. It's also good to have ways of acknowledging people that come up with new ways of doing things advancing global flourishing. The underlying logic here is to pay attention to people&rsquo;s emotions, social signaling, and group dynamics. Then, provide appropriate rewards and positive reinforcements for higher engagement, without making people feel not included if they do not choose to engage more, or need to drop out and re-engage later.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">6) We can also celebrate the people who make small steps that carry them up the spectrum of engagement: those who go from 1% to 5% and those who go from 5 to 10% of their monetary donations; those who take TLYCS or the GWWC pledge; those who increase their level of volunteering from being EA group members to EA group organizers, who start to give EA talks or host</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/Giving-Games"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">Giving Games</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, who start to write blog post about their EA engagement, who start to volunteer for EA meta-charities or effective direct-action charities. The key is to encourage and praise multiple </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/7k/what_small_things_can_an_ea_do/"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">small steps</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> and multiple paths, for instance for people that don't want to do talks but are ok with writing blog-posts and vice versa, in order that people don't get discouraged thinking you only support a person if they choose a particular activity. It's also good to have ways of acknowledging people that come up with new ways of doing things advancing global flourishing. The underlying logic here is to pay attention to people&rsquo;s emotions, social signaling, and group dynamics. Then, provide appropriate rewards and positive reinforcements for higher engagement, without making people feel not included if they do not choose to engage more, or need to drop out and re-engage later.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
-<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">7) On a related note, we can publicly promote the idea that people will shift their commitment levels of time and money to the movement as their circumstances change, and that&rsquo;s ok! Heidi Overbeek is </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6g6"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">one example</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of a person who did so. People like Heidi should be welcomed to commit as much as they are willing and able, and not asked to keep committing at their previous level despite their change in circumstances. It&rsquo;s especially easy for us dedicated EA participants to make the mistake of demanding that people stick to prior commitments due to the human brain&rsquo;s vulnerability to</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline;">loss aversion</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, but knowing about this tendency, we can avoid it.</span></p>
+<p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">7) On a related note, we can publicly promote the idea that people will shift their commitment levels of time and money to the movement as their circumstances change, and that&rsquo;s ok! Heidi Overbeek is </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/sl/celebrating_all_who_are_in_effective_altruism/6g6"><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">one example</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> of a person who did so. People like Heidi should be welcomed to commit as much as they are willing and able, and not asked to keep committing at their previous level despite their change in circumstances. It&rsquo;s especially easy for us dedicated EA participants to make the mistake of demanding that people stick to prior commitments due to the human brain&rsquo;s vulnerability to</span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: Arial; color: #1155cc; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration: underline; background-color: transparent;">loss aversion</span></a><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">, but knowing about this tendency, we can avoid it.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
 <p style="line-height: 2.0736; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 13.333333333333332px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Now, I&rsquo;m not suggesting we should make most speakers typical EAs, or write most articles or conduct most interviews with them. Overall, my take is that it&rsquo;s appropriate to celebrate individual EA members proportional to their labors, and as the numbers above show, dedicated EA participants individually contribute quite a bit more than typical ones. Yet we as a movement need to go against the current norm of not acknowledging typical EA members, and give them the recognition they deserve for contributing in their mass more than dedicated EA participants, and not making excessive demands on them that will cause them to leave the movement. These are just some specific steps that would help us achieve this goal.</span></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@

-<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Self-motivated hard work is the primary source of the intense, optimistic engagement known as flow&mdash;one of the greatest forms of happiness that makes us come alive with purpose and potential (Csikszentmihalyi, 1975). Sadly, for most people work does not feel so rewarding most of the time. Instead we often have to persevere through long periods of hard, painful, and unrewarding work when we could be doing something much more enjoyable. When faced with this motivational challenge people often give up too easily, get sidetracked, or procrastinate (Steel, 2007). The problem is not that we are not willing or unable to work hard. To the contrary, we crave being productively engaged in challenging tasks. Thus, instead of blaming ourselves for our limited will-power, it may be more productive to take a critical look at the carrots and the sticks that are supposed to help us stay motivated. Who put them there and why? Are these incentives helpful, distracting, irrelevant, or out of sight? If you could place them differently and add new ones, where would they go? Often, the problem is that the rewards we experience in the short run are misaligned with what we want to accomplish. In the short run the extremely valuable work that brings us closer to our cherished goals can be aversive while activities that are irrelevant or even opposed to everything we want to accomplish can be pleasant and rewarding. Hence, when we struggle to be engaged with something that we care about, then perhaps we are not the problem but the incentives are, or as Jane McGonigal (2011) put it "Reality is broken". So, if reality is broken, then what can we do to fix it? &nbsp;One approach is to design better incentive structures that make the pursuit of our goals more engaging. If we want to go this way, then there is a lot to be learned from games, because their incentive structures are so well designed that they let people enjoy hard work for many hours on end (McGonigal, 2011). In the past five years, the success of video games has inspired the gamification of education, work, health, and business. Gamification is the use of game elements, like points, levels, badges, and quests to engage, motivate, and nudge people in non-game contexts. There are even tools like&nbsp;<a title="SuperBetter" href="http://www.superbetter.com/"><span style="color: blue;">SuperBetter</span></a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a title="Habitica" href="http://www.habitica.com/"><span style="color: blue;">Habitica</span></a>&nbsp;that individuals like you and I can use to gamify our own lives. Previous studies have shown that gamification can have positive effects on motivation, engagement, behavior, learning outcomes, and health&mdash;but only when it is done right (Hamari, Koivisto, &amp; Sarsa, 2014; Roepke, et al., 2015). But when gamification is done wrong it can have negative effects by incentivizing counter-productive behaviors. So far gamification has been an art, and there is very little science about how to do it right. This motivated my advisor and me to develop a practical theory of optimal gamification.</span></p>
+<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Self-motivated hard work is the primary source of the intense, optimistic engagement known as flow&mdash;one of the greatest forms of happiness that makes us come alive with purpose and potential (Csikszentmihalyi, 1975). Sadly, for most people work does not feel so rewarding most of the time. Instead we often have to persevere through long periods of hard, painful, and unrewarding work when we could be doing something much more enjoyable. When faced with this motivational challenge people often give up too easily, get sidetracked, or procrastinate (Steel, 2007). The problem is not that we are not willing or unable to work hard. To the contrary, we crave being productively engaged in challenging tasks. Thus, instead of blaming ourselves for our limited will-power, it may be more productive to take a critical look at the carrots and the sticks that are supposed to help us stay motivated. Who put them there and why? Are these incentives helpful, distracting, irrelevant, or out of sight? If you could place them differently and add new ones, where would they go? Often, the problem is that the rewards we experience in the short run are misaligned with what we want to accomplish. In the short run the extremely valuable work that brings us closer to our cherished goals can be aversive while activities that are irrelevant or even opposed to everything we want to accomplish can be pleasant and rewarding. Hence, when we struggle to be engaged with something that we care about, then perhaps we are not the problem but the incentives are, or as Jane McGonigal (2011) put it "Reality is broken". So, if reality is broken, then what can we do to fix it? &nbsp;One approach is to design better incentive structures that make the pursuit of our goals more engaging. If we want to go this way, then there is a lot to be learned from games, because their incentive structures are so well designed that they let people enjoy hard work for many hours on end (McGonigal, 2011). In the past five years, the success of video games has inspired the gamification of education, work, health, and business. Gamification is the use of game elements, like points, levels, badges, and quests to engage, motivate, and nudge people in non-game contexts. There are even tools like&nbsp;<a href="http://www.superbetter.com/">SuperBetter</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="http://www.habitica.com/">Habitica</a>&nbsp;that individuals like you and I can use to gamify our own lives. Previous studies have shown that gamification can have positive effects on motivation, engagement, behavior, learning outcomes, and health&mdash;but only when it is done right (Hamari, Koivisto, &amp; Sarsa, 2014; Roepke, et al., 2015). But when gamification is done wrong it can have negative effects by incentivizing counter-productive behaviors. So far gamification has been an art, and there is very little science about how to do it right. This motivated my advisor and me to develop a practical theory of optimal gamification.</span></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">In this blog post I focus on how our theory could be applied in practice. If you would like to learn about the technical details or read more about our experiments, then please take look at our CogSci paper (Lieder &amp; Griffiths, submitted). I will start with a very brief summary of our method, provide an intuitive explanation of what it does, and then dive into how you can implement it in your own life. I will close with an outlook on how our method could be applied to gamify our todo lists.</span></p>
 <h1><br /></h1>
 <h1>Level 1: Optimal Gamification</h1>
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@

 <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /></span></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 2;"><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">References and recommended readings</span></strong></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; color: #444444;">Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1975).&nbsp;<em>Beyond boredom and anxiety: the experience of play in work and games</em>. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.</span></p>
-<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Lieder, F., &amp; Griffiths, T.L. (submitted).&nbsp;<span style="color: #141823;">Helping people make better decisions using optimal gamification. CogSci 2016.&nbsp;</span><a href="http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/falk/GamificationCogSci.pdf"><span style="color: blue;">[Manuscript]</span></a></span></p>
+<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Lieder, F., &amp; Griffiths, T.L. (submitted).&nbsp;<span style="color: #141823;">Helping people make better decisions using optimal gamification. CogSci 2016.&nbsp;</span><a href="http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/falk/GamificationCogSci.pdf">[Manuscript]</a></span></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">McGonigal, J. (2011). Reality is broken: Why games make us better&nbsp;and how they can change the world. New York: Penguin.</span></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">McGonigal, J. (2015). SuperBetter: A revolutionary approach to&nbsp;getting stronger, happier, braver and more resilient&ndash;powered by the&nbsp;science of games. London, UK: Penguin Press.</span></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Hamari, J., Koivisto, J., &amp; Sarsa, H. (2014). Does gamification&nbsp;work?&ndash;A literature review of empirical studies on gamification.&nbsp;In 47th Hawaii international conference on system sciences (pp.&nbsp;3025&ndash;3034).</span></p>

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@

 <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Many applications of gamification reward "good" actions with points regardless of when or how often these actions are taken. But according to the shaping theorem, the number of points must depend on the state in which the action is taken and the state that it leads to. If your pseudo-rewards were based only on what you do but not on when you do it, then you might keep rewarding yourself for something even when it is no longer valuable, because the underlying state has changed. For instance, at some point your reward for losing weight has to diminish or else you may be setting yourself up for anorexia.</span></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"><br /></span></p>
 <h1>Level 3:&nbsp;Todo-list gamification</h1>
-<p class="MsoNormal"><img style="float: right;" src="https://sites.google.com/site/falklieder/practical-rationality-blog/gamification/TodoListGamification.png" alt="Todo list gamification" width="475.5" height="308.25" /></p>
+<p class="MsoNormal"><img style="float: right; padding-left: 10px" src="https://sites.google.com/site/falklieder/practical-rationality-blog/gamification/TodoListGamification.png" alt="Todo list gamification" width="475.5" height="308.25" /></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">My first practical application is to manually gamify my todo-list every morning. I find this very helpful and motivating: Assigning points to the items on my todo list makes me realize how much I value them. This is useful for prioritizing important task. Earning points allows me to perceive my progress more more accurately and more vividly. This helps me feel great about getting something important done even when it was only a single item on my todo list and took me a lot of time and effort to accomplish. Conversely, the point scheme also prevents me from feeling so good about checking off small things that I become tempted to neglect the big ones that are much more important. Gamification thereby remedies the todo list's shortcoming that it makes each item seem equally important. I highly recommend gamifying your todo lists. It can be highly motivating. Yet, adding the points manually takes some effort and my point scheme is often somewhat arbitrary and probably suboptimal. To make todo list gamification easier and more effective, I am planning to develop an easy-to-use website or app that will do optimal gamification for you. Its graphical user interface would allow you to create hierarchical todo-lists, ask you 1 or 2 simple questions about each item on your list and then gamify your todo-list for you. To do this, it will translate your list and your answers into a MDP, compute its optimal value function, and use it to determine how valuable it is to complete each item. The tool could also help you set manageable subgoals and determine what is most important and should be done first. Last but not least, a website or app can also leverage additional game elements to make the points that you earn more rewarding: It can track your productivity and provide instant feedback that makes your progress more salient. It can send you on a quest that gives you a goals along with small actionable steps. The tool could allow you to realize that you are getting ever more productive by visualizing your progress over time. As you become more effective, you level up and your quests will become increasingly more challenging. &nbsp;It might include a scoreboard that lets you compete with yourself and/or others and win prizes for your performance. Last but not least, if you need an extra push, you can tie your points to social rewards, your favorite treat, money, or access to your favorite music, apps, or websites. There are many more possibilities, and I invite you to think about it and share your ideas. In brief, there is wealth of opportunities to leverage game elements to make goal achievement fun and easy.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> <!--[endif]--></span></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><strong><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Join me on my quest! An adventure awaits.&nbsp;</span></strong><strong></strong></p>
 <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Gamification can be a useful tool to make achieving your goals easier and more engaging. However, gamification only works when it is done right. The theory of MDPs and pseudo-rewards provide the formal tools needed to do gamification right. With the help of these tools we can design incentive structures that help people overcome motivational obstacles, do the right thing and achieve their goals. But more research and development needs to be done to make optimal gamification practical.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /> <!--[endif]--></span></p>

@@ -250,7 +250,7 @@

 <p class="noindent">The objective reality we confront on a daily basis not only <span class="ecti-1000">can </span>be modelled at multiple levels of abstraction, but in order to utilize our experiential data as efficiently as possible, we <span class="ecti-1000">must </span>model it at multiple levels of abstraction. Macroscopic models explain more of the variation in observable data with fewer parameters, while microscopic models successfully explain a larger portion of the total available data by including even the &ldquo;sloppier&rdquo; parameters. How large is the trade-off between these models, in terms of necessary data and generalization power? Extremely large:</p>
 <div class="quotation"><!--l. 823-->
 <blockquote>
-<p class="indent"><em><span class="ecti-1000">Eigenvalues [of the Fisher Information Matrix] are normalized</span> <span class="ecti-1000">to unit stiffest value; only the first 10 decades are shown. This</span> <span class="ecti-1000">means that inferring the parameter combination whose eigenvalue</span> <span class="ecti-1000">is smallest shown would require ~</span><span class="cmr-10">10</span><sup><span class="cmr-7">10</span></sup> <span class="ecti-1000">times more data than the</span> <span class="ecti-1000">stiffest parameter combination. Conversely, this means that the least</span> <span class="ecti-1000">important parameter combination is</span> <img class="sqrt" src="/Harpers_Fishing_Nets0x.png" alt="&radic;---- 1010" /> <span class="ecti-1000">times less important for</span> <span class="ecti-1000">understanding system behavior.</span></em></p>
+<p class="indent"><em><span class="ecti-1000">Eigenvalues [of the Fisher Information Matrix] are normalized</span> <span class="ecti-1000">to unit stiffest value; only the first 10 decades are shown. This</span> <span class="ecti-1000">means that inferring the parameter combination whose eigenvalue</span> <span class="ecti-1000">is smallest shown would require ~</span><span class="cmr-10">10</span><sup><span class="cmr-7">10</span></sup> <span class="ecti-1000">times more data than the</span> <span class="ecti-1000">stiffest parameter combination. Conversely, this means that the least</span> <span class="ecti-1000">important parameter combination is</span> sqrt(10<sup>10</sup>) <span class="ecti-1000">times less important for</span> <span class="ecti-1000">understanding system behavior.</span></em></p>
 </blockquote>
 </div>
 <!--l. 825-->

@@ -9,7 +9,6 @@

 <p>'...Okay, show me what you have.'</p>
 <p>The Padawan opens the report of Owen and Miller (A Comparison of Staining Techniques for Somatic Chromosomes of Strawberry, HortScience 28(2):155-156. 1993) and jumps to the Results section.</p>
 <p><img src="http://images.lesswrong.com/t3_mb4_0.png" alt="" width="540" height="660" /></p>
-<p><img 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alt="" /></p>
 <p>'See, Master, orange means there's some problem with the Staining: the Chromosomes are too pale to see at all or indistinguishable from the rest. Either way, you cannot Count them.'</p>
 <p>'I see. Orange, as a Sith's blade...and green?</p>
 <p>'Good intensity, good contrast. Green are the <strong>proper </strong>ways to Stain.'</p>