Comment on indexical uncertainty and the Axiom of Independence

Sat, 08 Aug 2009 07:50:05 GMT

In the case of probability of ordinary observations, I think you can assign probabilities if your preferences over possible strategies satisfy some conditions, the major one being what you prefer to happen in one branch has to be independent of what you prefer to happen in another branch, i.e., the Axiom of Independence. If we ignore counterfactual-mugging type considerations, do you see any problems with this? If so can you give an example?

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