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derekz comments on Expected futility for humans - Less Wrong
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A lot of this probably comes down to:
Don’t assume – that you have a rich enough picture of yourself, a rich enough picture of the rest of reality, or that your ability to mentally trace through the consequences of actions comes anywhere near the richness of reality’s ability to do so.
You could use that feedback from the results of prior actions. Like: http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Individual/Self/zahn.txt