Jonathan_Graehl comments on Exterminating life is rational - Less Wrong

17 Post author: PhilGoetz 06 August 2009 04:17PM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 06 August 2009 09:09:06PM *  10 points [-]

Here's a possible problem with my analysis:

Suppose Omega or one of its ilk says to you, "Here's a game we can play. I have an infinitely large deck of cards here. Half of them have a star on them, and one-tenth of them have a skull on them. Every time you draw a card with a star, I'll double your utility for the rest of your life. If you draw a card with a skull, I'll kill you."

How many cards do you draw?

I'm pretty sure that someone who believes in many worlds will keep drawing cards until they die. But even if you don't believe in many worlds, I think you do the same thing, unless you are not maximizing expected utility. (Unless chance is quantized so that there is a minimum possible possibility. I don't think that would help much anyway.)

So this whole post may boil down to "maximizing expected utility" not actually being the right thing to do. Also see my earlier, equally unpopular post on why expectation maximization implies average utilitarianism. If you agree that average utilitarianism seems wrong, that's another piece of evidence that maximizing expected utility is wrong.

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 06 August 2009 11:36:13PM *  1 point [-]

Assuming the utility increase holds my remaining lifespan constant, I'd draw a card every few years (if allowed). I don't claim to maximize "expected integral of happiness over time" by doing so (substitute utility for happiness if you like; but perhaps utility should be forward-looking and include expected happiness over time as just one of my values?). Of course, by supposing my utility can be doubled, I'll never be fully satisfied.

Comment author: dclayh 07 August 2009 07:08:30AM 0 points [-]

The "justified expectation of pleasant surprises", as someone or other said.