RichardKennaway comments on The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average) - Less Wrong

15 [deleted] 09 June 2009 07:29AM

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Comment author: RichardKennaway 09 June 2009 01:27:19PM *  2 points [-]

If we all take you at your word, that does indeed make it more interesting. If every other entrant acts rationally in choosing P, we must have P = (2/3)(PN + 100)/(N+1), if there are N other participants. This solves to give P = 200/(N+3).

But we don't know N, we can only guess at it, or some probability distribution of N. N is at least 2, since Psy-Kosh has claimed to have entered, and anyone making this calculation must count themselves among the N. But Psy-Kosh posted before cousin_it revealed its guess of 100, so we might guess that Psy-Kosh voted 0 on the grounds given in the original post, which then modifies the calculation to give P = 200/(N+5).

But suppose of the N non-cousin_it entrants, K entered before knowing cousin_it's entry, and all chose 0. Then we get P = 200/(N+3+2K).

Now, Aumann agreement only applies if the parties confer to honestly share their information. However, this has been framed as a competitive game, and someone who wants to be the exclusive winner would to better to avoid any such procedure, or to participate in it dishonestly.

A simpler analysis would be to point out that if Psy-Kosh voted zero (as would have been rational without cousin_it), then if everyone else votes zero, all will win except cousin_it. However, if someone votes slightly more than zero, then that one will be the exclusive winner. Someone who values an exclusive win above a tie might try to persuade everyone to vote zero and then defect.

Edit: I have entered, based on the above considerations. My entry was greater than zero.

Comment author: cousin_it 09 June 2009 02:01:23PM *  2 points [-]

Good, but it's even more interesting.

a) I have successfully moved the average by ~2X compared to if I'd stayed silent.

b) If N is known and everyone acts rationally as you describe, a pair of colluding players can screw everyone over: one guesses 100, the other guesses the new average.

The combined effect is making my brain explode.

Comment author: loqi 10 June 2009 02:22:33AM 0 points [-]

If I may attempt to contribute your brain matter's outward velocity: When I was contemplating submitting a guess (which I didn't do), I actually concluded (I have no evidence for this, sorry) that you in particular would probably guess 100. Had I acted on that, the effect would have been nearly the same, except for the possibility that others would be drawing the same inference.