lavalamp comments on The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average) - Less Wrong

15 [deleted] 09 June 2009 07:29AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (149)

Sort By: Best

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: lavalamp 09 June 2009 07:51:40PM * 0 points [-]

It depends where in the range of 0-average the guess is.

But of course I see what you mean; I meant between 0 and (average * 3/4), sorry.

EDIT: (average * 3/4 + average * 3/8) is the upper bound, unless I forgot something or you're not allowed to go over.

EDIT 2: The point being, there's a lot more winning non-zero answers than zero answers.

Comment author: conchis 09 June 2009 09:25:54PM * 0 points [-]

The point being, there's a lot more winning non-zero answers than zero answers.

Sure, but what are the odds of you getting the right one. If they're too low, then you could still better of with zero.

Comment author: lavalamp 09 June 2009 09:54:22PM 0 points [-]

If I rank a tie and a loss the same, then I'm don't risk anything by guessing a non-0 value for the chance of winning outright.