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lavalamp comments on The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average) - Less Wrong
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I should have explicitly stated this (you've caused me to realize that it's necessary for my whole line of reasoning), but it's also the case that losing is not a worse outcome for me than tying.
Ah. OK. I think that's generally supposed to be excluded by the set up (though in this case it was admittedly ambiguous). But given that you have those preferences, I agree that your reasoning makes sense.