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orthonormal comments on The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average) - Less Wrong
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Comments (149)
I'd bet two karma points against one that you submitted a number you believe has a less-than-average chance of winning this game. You might have submitted a very large number, or you might have submitted 0, confident in the knowledge that 0 will not actually win.
As for whether you claim your submission was rational, I suppose it depends on which answer amuses you more today.
All of your points, although initially quite plausible, become uncertain upon deeper reflection - except the last, which is the best example of reasoning in this thread so far.
I award you one point, and suggest that you think further upon the problem of the paradox of anticipation.