Warrigal comments on The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average) - Less Wrong

15 [deleted] 09 June 2009 07:29AM

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Comment author: Dagon 09 June 2009 05:40:11PM 6 points [-]

I've played this game, with an actual small prize to give some incentive in favor of cooperating with the experiment. I was surprised at the number of intelligent-seeming people who did not understand that 0 was the "rational" solution. I was unsurprised at the number of people who understood, and submitted answers they knew were irrational just for fun.

This is a bad test of an agreement theorem. There's no reason to believe that participants are motivated to agree, or that their expression of guess is the same as their belief in the "correct" guess.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 June 2009 07:15:08PM 1 point [-]

Honesty is also a condition for Aumann's agreement theorem, though I neglected to actually ask that people submit only honest guesses.