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Grognor comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong
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Comments (58)
Black Belt Bayesian had a similar post, Assuming Is Not Believing.
That post and this one both remind me of Eliezer's accounts of how the most humble are those who actually prepare for their own worst mistakes, even if they don't really anticipate making them.
I think this is a very useful dichotomy, one that could use more attention. Preparing for an event, and expecting an event. Different' things.
That's not what I usually mean by assume. (But I'm not a native English speaker, so maybe I just somehow picked up the wrong meaning.)