Tyrrell_McAllister comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong

4 Post author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 06:03PM

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Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 09 June 2009 06:23:38PM *  0 points [-]

I understand your point: Setting a threshold of probability for saying that one believes P imposes a distinction that probably shouldn't make a difference in one's actions. Therefore, one plausibly shouldn't impose such thresholds at all. However, I don't understand this line

Belief in an outcome N means that you set p(N) = threshold(p(N)), so now p(N) is 0 or 1.

It would certainly be absurd to set thresholds if doing so had this consequence. But why does it?

Comment author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 06:28:48PM 0 points [-]

Hmm, what I said was not quite right. I'll edit it.