Vladimir_Nesov comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong

4 Post author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 06:03PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 June 2009 07:34:45PM *  -1 points [-]

That's not what I was talking about, interpreting "It's possible that X will happen" as "the event X is non-empty" is as wrong as interpreting "I believe X will happen" as "negation of even X is empty". Uncertainty is just lack of certainty, "it's possible" expresses probability lower than that of "it's probable", way below "it's certain". See also the references from the Possibility article on the wiki.