PhilGoetz comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong

4 Post author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 06:03PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (58)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 07:43:46PM 0 points [-]

"I believe it's possible that I'll die in a car accident" is a statement of uncertainty in the event "I'll die in a car accident"

No; it's a statement of certainty; but it is expressing certainty that the proposition "it is possible that I will die in a car accident" is true, not that "I will die in a car accident" is true.