PhilGoetz comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong

4 Post author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 06:03PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 June 2009 07:18:00PM 0 points [-]

"I believe it's possible that I'll die in a car accident" is a statement of uncertainty in the event "I'll die in a car accident", so how is it relevant that the statement as a whole is a statement of certainty? I misjudged, trying to find the cause of you mentioning that, which now opens that question explicitly.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 07:43:46PM 0 points [-]

"I believe it's possible that I'll die in a car accident" is a statement of uncertainty in the event "I'll die in a car accident"

No; it's a statement of certainty; but it is expressing certainty that the proposition "it is possible that I will die in a car accident" is true, not that "I will die in a car accident" is true.