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lavalamp comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong
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Comments (58)
I don't know how I can re-explain it other than just repeating the examples in my post. People see that proposition X implies action A. They then try to decide whether they believe X. If they don't, they don't take action A. This is wrong.
Also, "I believe it's possible that I'll die in a car accident" is a statement of certainty. Parse it.
Fantastically concise summary to a great post. I've tried to explain this to others a few times, and came nowhere near such a direct statement of the problem.