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Annoyance comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong
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"I believe it's possible that I'll die in a car accident" is a statement of uncertainty in the event "I'll die in a car accident", so how is it relevant that the statement as a whole is a statement of certainty? I misjudged, trying to find the cause of you mentioning that, which now opens that question explicitly.
No it's not. It's an assertion about someone's understanding and expectations. You're confusing the subject of the sentence with the subject of the subordinate clause.