lavalamp comments on You can't believe in Bayes - Less Wrong

4 Post author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2009 06:03PM

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Comment author: lavalamp 10 June 2009 04:42:55PM 0 points [-]

I was responding to you claiming it's a "weird thing to do" to infer a 55-85 interval based on common uses of the word "believe".

I thought I must be weird since I seem to have been the only one that completely didn't understand the post initially. But perhaps I just lack this other usage entirely, or perhaps I still don't agree. (See my response to Phil above: http://lesswrong.com/lw/10a/you_cant_believe_in_bayes/ssc)

In common usage, "think" and "believe" seem only to differ by degrees. For me, re-reading my above examples under s/believe/think/ seems to weaken the connoted confidence.

Agree. I don't like to give the impression that I'm more confident than I am.