taw comments on Intelligence enhancement as existential risk mitigation - Less Wrong

17 [deleted] 15 June 2009 07:35PM

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Comment author: taw 15 June 2009 08:19:02PM 0 points [-]

if we could improve the intelligence of the average voter by 10 IQ points, imagine how much saner the political process would look

It's highly non-obvious that it would have significant effects. Political process is imperfect but very pragmatic - what makes a lot of sense as there's only as much good an improved political process can do, and breaking it can cause horrible suffering. So current approach of gradual tweaks is a very safe alternative, even if it offends people's idealistic sensibilities.

Comment author: MichaelBishop 16 June 2009 01:11:22AM 3 points [-]

IQ is positively correlated with sharing economists' views on economic policy Therefore it seems likely people would vote differently and that this would translate into policy changes. I would expect other belief changes would be likely if IQ were increased.

Comment author: Arenamontanus 16 June 2009 06:01:50PM 2 points [-]

Here is a simple model. Assume you need a certain intelligence to understand a crucial, policy-affecting idea (we can make this a fuzzy border and talk about this in distribution to make it more realistic later). If you are below this level your policy choices will depend on taking up plausible-sounding arguments from others, but it will be uncorrelated to the truth. Left alone such a population will describe some form of random walk with amplification, ending up with a random decision. If you are above the critical level your views will be somewhat correlated with the truth. Since you are affecting others when you engage in political discourse, whether over the breakfast table or on TV, you will have an impact on other people, increasing their chance of agreeing with you. This biases the random walk of public opinion slightly in favour of truth.

From most models of political agreement formation I have seen, even a pretty small minority that get biased in a certain direction can sway a large group that just picks views based on neighbours. This would suggest that increasing the set of people smart enough to get the truth would substantially increase the likelihood of a correct group decision.

Comment author: ChrisHibbert 16 June 2009 06:07:59AM *  1 point [-]

My rebuttal to

imagine how much saner the political process would look

is to point at the work of Tullock and Buchanon on Public Choice theory. Basically, the take away is that politicians and bureaucrats respond to incentives. If the voting public were smarter, politicians' behavior would be different during elections, and the politicians would try to make their behavior in office look different. But they would still have an incentive to look like they were addressing problems rather than an incentive to actually solve them. It's much harder than 10 IQ points to align those outcomes.

And bureaucrats and middle managers in government would still face the same incentives about obfuscating results, multiplying staffing and budgets, and ensuring that projects and bureaucracies have staying power.

Comment author: MichaelBishop 17 June 2009 12:47:13AM *  1 point [-]

Public choice theory is important, but I still think there is good reason to believe increasing average IQ by such a huge amount would help. First, because better informed voters improves the incentives for politicians. Second, because the relatively bad incentives politicians face is not the only constraint on better goverment.

Comment author: asciilifeform 15 June 2009 09:23:56PM -1 points [-]

It's highly non-obvious that it would have significant effects

The effects may well be profound if sufficiently increased intelligence will produce changes in an individual's values and goal system, as I suspect it might.

At the risk of "argument from fictional evidence", I would like to bring up Poul Anderson's Brain Wave, an exploration of this idea (among others.)