gjm comments on Intelligence enhancement as existential risk mitigation - Less Wrong
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I wonder about this. Isn't it the case [translation: I'm sure I read in some general-audience psychology book once] that for just about every human activity, scientific research included, there's a certain level above which differences in intelligence, at least in the sense of what intelligence tests measure, seem to have very little correlation with differences in effectiveness?
It wouldn't surprise me at all if scientific research could be benefited much more by, say, making research scientists more energetic, or stronger-willed, or keener on hard work, or able to get by with less sleep.
(Of course this is a bit of a digression, since Roko is suggesting intelligence enhancement for a very different population. I think it might have more value there, if there were actually a feasible way to do it.)
What I said is not "increased IQ doesn't lead to better research" but that perhaps among people already smart enough to be any good at scientific research increased IQ might make little difference.
Even if that's true, though, there might be substantial benefit in increasing IQ among people who would like to do scientific research but aren't quite good enough at it for it to be a sensible career. But that's not what AIUI Nick Bostrom was suggesting.
The relationship of IQ to scientific achievement might be a step function.
I am curious about how this was measured.
What sort of mechanism would produce a step function? Sounds highly unlikely to me.
Added: I would expect the curve to be smooth.
Miscommunication. My point was only that I expect the function that describes the relationship to be a smooth curve. I wouldn't be too surprised if the relationship between IQ and research productivity is stronger at the high end than in the middle.
Sounds unlikely to me too, but it could explain the phenomenon underlying glm's quote (that above a certain threshold intelligence doesn't make much of a difference in "effectiveness"), assuming that the result is valid (which I would want to know how "effectiveness" was measured).
Your question about how they measured "effectiveness" is right on.
My guess is that marginal benefits to IQ depend on the task, and the IQ range. For tasks of medium difficulty, the marginal benefits of IQ will probably increase as one goes from the low-IQ to average, flatten out and then decrease as one gets to a very high range. But higher IQ allows you to efficiently attempt more much more difficult (and arguably important) tasks.
Human ability generally seems to be power-law distributed - the "80-20" rule often hold in research. I'm just checking out Murray's "Human Accomplishment", and this is the impression I get from his data - whether it is valid data remains to be seen. But this might have many other causes, from Matthew effects where widely cited people become even more cited (and maybe get great research environments) to multiplicator effects where productivity is due to multiplicative effects of more or less random factors - only a few gets a lot of them, and the result is a lognormal distribution.
IQ, as ability to make rational inferences in new domains, may be just one of these factors. Low IQ certainly precludes much scientific achievement. There are also selection effects where getting into the right schools or professions require overcoming IQ-loaded hurdles. The real benefits of IQ among geniuses might be smaller than other factors - but having more people with high IQ will certainly not decrease the pool of potential geniuses.
Logical fallacy: those Nobel prize winners do not have increased IQ. Presumably they have high IQ.
If Nobel prize winners all have very high IQs, that tells us that high IQ is a necessary - but not necessarily sufficient - requirement for winning Nobel prizes. And that itself tells us little about what's needed for quality research, even presuming that all Nobels are awarded for quality research. (I happen to know that they aren't, but that's another story.)
What are the Type I and Type II error rates of the Nobel prize award process?
IMO, the more important question is whether the overall system of incentives for scientists is effective.
Imagine we invented a pill which increased everyone's performance on IQ tests by one standard deviation with no side effects (note, I don't expect to see this soon). Further, imagine that all current scientists began taking it. What benefits would you expect to see?
Let me be more specific, assume no funding changes, even though smarter scientists would almost certainly get more funding: how much would Science and Nature have to expand if they did not raise the bar for publication? My estimate: 20% with a 95% confidence interval of [3%, 100%]
Roko was arguing somewhat casually but I don't think he is actually reasoning casually. Its fine to discourage this type of comment with a downvote, but starting your reply with the words "Logical fallacy" is unnecessarily harsh in my opinion.
Roko's comment seems to contain a logical fallacy. While there might be a reason to make the distinction between the reasoning going on in Roko's argument and the reasoning going on in Roko's head, I have no access to the latter and so must evaluate the former. I don't see what's wrong with Annoyance pointing that out, and calling a fallacious argument fallacious is hardly 'harsh'; at least, it's no harsher than is called for.
Even if you had access to the latter, that has no bearing on your evaluation of the former. It's the explicit claims that we're looking at, the ones that are actually communicated, not what the person meant inside their head or what we think they might mean.
I encourage efforts to maintain high standards of reasoning, and fairly explicit reasoning. In evaluating harshness, we need to strike a balance between at least three goals: 1. clarity of thought, 2. creating proper incentives for quality contributions which requires punishing mistakes / undesirable contributions, and 3. creating a friendly and respectful atmosphere.
For the record, calling Annoyance's comment, "unnecessarily harsh" was meant to be a minor criticism. There are many factors to consider, in this case I would have suggested that Annoyance replace "Logical fallacy" with "Nitpick." Also see my new comment for Annoyance.
There are many traits that would be useful for research and other fields, such as energy, better time management, social ability etc. Intelligence is important for problem-solving in domains where standard rules have not been defined, which might be particularly true in some reasearch. However, it is hard to measure the impact of such ability directly.
David Lubinski and Camilla Persson Benbow, Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth After 35 Years, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 1,316-343 www.vanderbilt.edu/Peabody/SMPY/DoingPsychScience2006.pdf has some intriguing data. They followed up the top percent scorers and compared the uppermost and lowest quartile of this already elite group. Unsurprisingly they were on average doing great, and the top group also earned more and had about six times the rate of tenure at top US universities. But that could just be pure competitive ability rather than any individually or socially useful outcome. The interesting result was that the number of doctorates and percent earning patents was about twice in the top quartile. Doctorates and patents are after all a form of measure of actually having achieved something, and presumably a society is better off if bright people produce more patentable ideas. This IMHO strengthens the idea that we would see gains from cognition enhancement even among the brightest.
However, I think the biggest economic and social impact will be due to intelligence among the great mass of people - reduction of costs and friction due to stupidity, short term thinking, mistakes and other limitations, increased benefits from better cooperation (smart people do better on iterated prisoners dilemma games and have longer time horizons) and ability to manage more complex systems.
A "emotional intelligence enhancer" might be socially beneficial too - there is no reason to think "pure" cognitive function is the end of things we might rationally want to see others enhance.