Annoyance comments on Intelligence enhancement as existential risk mitigation - Less Wrong

17 [deleted] 15 June 2009 07:35PM

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Comment author: Annoyance 16 June 2009 06:56:08PM -1 points [-]

Logical fallacy: those Nobel prize winners do not have increased IQ. Presumably they have high IQ.

If Nobel prize winners all have very high IQs, that tells us that high IQ is a necessary - but not necessarily sufficient - requirement for winning Nobel prizes. And that itself tells us little about what's needed for quality research, even presuming that all Nobels are awarded for quality research. (I happen to know that they aren't, but that's another story.)

What are the Type I and Type II error rates of the Nobel prize award process?

Comment author: MichaelBishop 16 June 2009 07:10:27PM 1 point [-]

What are the Type I and Type II error rates of the Nobel prize award process?

IMO, the more important question is whether the overall system of incentives for scientists is effective.

Comment author: MichaelBishop 16 June 2009 10:57:54PM *  0 points [-]

Imagine we invented a pill which increased everyone's performance on IQ tests by one standard deviation with no side effects (note, I don't expect to see this soon). Further, imagine that all current scientists began taking it. What benefits would you expect to see?

Let me be more specific, assume no funding changes, even though smarter scientists would almost certainly get more funding: how much would Science and Nature have to expand if they did not raise the bar for publication? My estimate: 20% with a 95% confidence interval of [3%, 100%]

Comment author: MichaelBishop 16 June 2009 07:06:33PM -1 points [-]

Roko was arguing somewhat casually but I don't think he is actually reasoning casually. Its fine to discourage this type of comment with a downvote, but starting your reply with the words "Logical fallacy" is unnecessarily harsh in my opinion.

Comment author: thomblake 16 June 2009 09:06:24PM 1 point [-]

Roko's comment seems to contain a logical fallacy. While there might be a reason to make the distinction between the reasoning going on in Roko's argument and the reasoning going on in Roko's head, I have no access to the latter and so must evaluate the former. I don't see what's wrong with Annoyance pointing that out, and calling a fallacious argument fallacious is hardly 'harsh'; at least, it's no harsher than is called for.

Comment author: Annoyance 17 June 2009 07:18:33PM -1 points [-]

While there might be a reason to make the distinction between the reasoning going on in Roko's argument and the reasoning going on in Roko's head, I have no access to the latter and so must evaluate the former.

Even if you had access to the latter, that has no bearing on your evaluation of the former. It's the explicit claims that we're looking at, the ones that are actually communicated, not what the person meant inside their head or what we think they might mean.

Comment author: MichaelBishop 16 June 2009 10:24:18PM -1 points [-]

I encourage efforts to maintain high standards of reasoning, and fairly explicit reasoning. In evaluating harshness, we need to strike a balance between at least three goals: 1. clarity of thought, 2. creating proper incentives for quality contributions which requires punishing mistakes / undesirable contributions, and 3. creating a friendly and respectful atmosphere.

For the record, calling Annoyance's comment, "unnecessarily harsh" was meant to be a minor criticism. There are many factors to consider, in this case I would have suggested that Annoyance replace "Logical fallacy" with "Nitpick." Also see my new comment for Annoyance.