MichaelBishop comments on Intelligence enhancement as existential risk mitigation - Less Wrong
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Logical fallacy: those Nobel prize winners do not have increased IQ. Presumably they have high IQ.
If Nobel prize winners all have very high IQs, that tells us that high IQ is a necessary - but not necessarily sufficient - requirement for winning Nobel prizes. And that itself tells us little about what's needed for quality research, even presuming that all Nobels are awarded for quality research. (I happen to know that they aren't, but that's another story.)
What are the Type I and Type II error rates of the Nobel prize award process?
Imagine we invented a pill which increased everyone's performance on IQ tests by one standard deviation with no side effects (note, I don't expect to see this soon). Further, imagine that all current scientists began taking it. What benefits would you expect to see?
Let me be more specific, assume no funding changes, even though smarter scientists would almost certainly get more funding: how much would Science and Nature have to expand if they did not raise the bar for publication? My estimate: 20% with a 95% confidence interval of [3%, 100%]