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saturn comments on Cascio in The Atlantic, more on cognitive enhancement as existential risk mitigation - Less Wrong
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That's a kind of the giant cheesecake fallacy. Capability increases risk caused by some people, but it also increases the power of other people to mitigate the risks. Knowing about the increase in the capability of these factors doesn't help you in deciding which of them wins.
If we assume that causing risk requires a certain intelligence level and mitigating risks requires a certain (higher) level, changing the distribution of intelligence in a way that enlarges both groups will not, in general, enlarge both by the same factor.
Obviously. A coin is also going to land on exactly one of the sides (but you don't know which one). Why do you pronounce this fact?
That statement shows a way in which the claim that increasing the number of intelligent people will increase rather than decrease risk might be supported.