This is why papers like H. Rindermann, Relevance of Education and Intelligence for the Political Development of Nations: Democracy, Rule of Law and Political Liberty, Intelligence, v36 n4 p306-322 Jul-Aug 2008 are relevant. This one looks at lagged data, trying to infer how much effect schooling, GDP and IQ at time t1 affects schooling, GDP and IQ at time t2.
The bane of this type of studies is of course the raw scores - how much cognitive ability is actually measured by school scores, surveys, IQ tests or whatever means that are used - and whether averages is telling us something important. One could imagine a model where extreme outliers were the real force of progress (I doubt this one, given that IQ does seem to correlate with a lot of desirable things and likely has network effects, but the data is likely not strong enough to rule out an outlier theory).
Thanks Anders. It occurs to me at this point that having a personal Anders to back you up with relevant references when in a tight spot is a significant cognitive enhancement.
Jamais Cascio writes in the atlantic:
Read the whole article here.
This relates to cognitive enhancement as existential risk mitigation, where Anders Sandberg wrote:
The main criticisms of this idea generated in the Less Wrong comments were:
These criticisms really boil down to the same thing: people love their cherished falsehoods! Of course, I cannot disagree with this statement. But it seems to me that smarter people have a lower tolerance for making utterly ridiculous claims in favour of their cherished falsehood, and will (to some extent) be protected from believing silly things that make them (individually) feel happier, but are highly unsupported by evidence. Case in point: religion. This study1 states that
Many people in the comments made the claim that making people more intelligent will, due to human self-deceiving tendencies, make people more deluded about the nature of the world. The data concerning religion detracts support from this hypothesis. There is also direct evidence to show that a whole list of human cognitive biases are more likely to be avoided by being more intelligent - though far from all (perhaps even far from most?) of them. This paper2 states:
Anders Sandberg also suggested the following piece of evidence3 in favour of the hypothesis that increased intelligence leads to more rational political decisions:
Thus the hypothesis that increasing peoples' intelligence will make them believe fewer falsehoods and will make them vote for more effective government has at least two pieces of empirical evidence on its side.
1. Average intelligence predicts atheism rates across 137 nations, Richard Lynn, John Harvey and Helmuth Nyborg, Intelligence Volume 37, Issue 1,
2. On the Relative Independence of Thinking Biases and Cognitive Ability, Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2008, Vol. 94, No. 4, 672–695
3. Relevance of education and intelligence for the political development of nations: Democracy, rule of law and political liberty, Heiner Rindermann, Intelligence, Volume 36, Issue 4