orthonormal comments on Cascio in The Atlantic, more on cognitive enhancement as existential risk mitigation - Less Wrong

20 [deleted] 18 June 2009 03:09PM

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Comment author: orthonormal 22 June 2009 09:22:52PM 2 points [-]

No, you said, as I quoted, that intelligence was not at all correlated with atheism, despite atheism being highly correlated with intelligence. This is uncontroversially and trivially impossible; if p(A|B)≠p(A) where p(A) and p(B) are positive, then p(B|A)≠p(B).

A corr B means B corr A, but the strength of one correlation doesn't have anything to do with the strength of the other.

The coefficient of correlation between A and B is the same as the coefficient of correlation between B and A, so this is false. I believe you mean, rather, that having a positive test for a rare disease can still leave you less than 50% likely to have the disease, while having the disease makes you very likely to test positive for it. However, the correlation is still strong in both directions: your chance of having the disease has jumped from "ridiculously unlikely" to just "unlikely" given that positive test.