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Benquo comments on Controlling your inner control circuits - Less Wrong
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It sounds like you're saying:
1) the range of conceivably effective self-help techniques is very large relative to the number of actually effective techniques
2) a technique that is negative-expected-value can look positive with small n
3) consequently, using small-n trials on lots of techniques is an inefficient way to look for effective ones, and is itself negative-expected-value, just like looking for the correct lottery number by playing the lottery.
In this analogy, it is the whole self-help space, not the one technique, that is like a lottery.
Am I on the right track?