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Nick_Tarleton comments on Open Thread: July 2009 - Less Wrong
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Are there differences between prediction and markets that make it easier for a "smart bias-educated person" to win fairly easily?
If you think its fairly easy, then I'd be curious to know whether you're putting your money where your mouth is... how much have you invested?
Yes. Prediction markets are far smaller, and have far less intelligence devoted to exploiting away their irrationalities.