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wedrifid comments on Open Thread: July 2009 - Less Wrong
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Are there differences between prediction and markets that make it easier for a "smart bias-educated person" to win fairly easily?
If you think its fairly easy, then I'd be curious to know whether you're putting your money where your mouth is... how much have you invested?
my question was about how much more efficient the stock market is, and why.
My answer to whether there are differences between prediction [markets] and markets was no, except in as much as prediction markets that are currently active are far larger (noise cancellation), more heavily traded (more information from more experts is represented already), and have had longer for biasses to be exploited and so corrected for.
Efficiency.