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loqi comments on Rationality Quotes - July 2009 - Less Wrong
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It's pretty depressing. Not too long ago, someone I know expressed the belief that red is more likely to come up on a roulette table if the last five spins landed on black. He holds a graduate degree in computer science.
If all I knew was that the last five spins landed on black, if I had to bet red or black, I'd bet black. There could be a bias in the wheel, although roulette wheels in today's casinos are pretty much free from biases. (I'd still prefer not to bet on roulette at all, though, at least not given the standard casino payouts.)
I don't blame him, it's a fairly common mistake if you don't actively think it through.
Representativeness heuristic. It's what humans have as a hardwired probability estimator, unless they learn counter-intuitive maths.
ow ow ow ow ow.