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JulianMorrison comments on Rationality Quotes - July 2009 - Less Wrong
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It's pretty depressing. Not too long ago, someone I know expressed the belief that red is more likely to come up on a roulette table if the last five spins landed on black. He holds a graduate degree in computer science.
Representativeness heuristic. It's what humans have as a hardwired probability estimator, unless they learn counter-intuitive maths.