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CronoDAS comments on Can chess be a game of luck? - Less Wrong
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I've heard that, if you go all-in on every hand in a heads-up poker match, the optimal counter-strategy still leaves you with a 1/3 chance of winning. (I don't know if this is correct or not.)
It depends -- in the limit where blinds are zero, you only call with aces and win 80% of the time. For more realistic values you may well be right.
(I had a truly marvelous bit about luck in chess in an unposted draft. Now I'll probably throw that bit away.)
Sounds about right to me. Going all-in every hand (pre-flop, and blind, of course, so I can't be read) would definitely improve my odds if I were in a heads-up game against a pro. But at a table with more than (say) 3 others, unless they can read me as perfectly as Omega, I should probably start looking at my cards and following a simple memorized poker algorithm.