What he said. Also, if you are evaluating the rectitude of each possible choice by its consequences (i.e. using your utility function), it doesn't matter if you actually (might) cause the torture or if it just (possibly) occurs within your light cone - you have to count it.
I believe you should count choices that can measurably change the probability of torture. If you can't measure a change in the probability of torture, you should count that as no change. I believe this view more closely corresponds to current physical models than the infinite butterflies concept.
In line with my fine tradition of beating old horses, in this post I'll try to summarize some arguments that people proposed in the ancient puzzle of Torture vs. Dust Specks and add some of my own. Not intended as an endorsement of either side. (I do have a preferred side, but don't know exactly why.)
Oh what a tangle. I guess Eliezer is too altruistic to give up torture no matter what we throw at him; others will adopt excuses to choose specks; still others will stay gut-convinced but logically puzzled, like me. The right answer, or the right theory to guide you to the answer, no longer seems so inevitable and mathematically certain.
Edit: I submitted this post to LW by mistake, then deleted it which turned out to be the real mistake. Seeing the folks merrily discussing away in the comments long after the deletion, I tried to undelete the post somehow, but nothing worked. All right; let this be a sekrit area. A shame, really, because I just thought of a scenario that might have given even Eliezer cause for self-doubt: