Warrigal comments on Causation as Bias (sort of) - Less Wrong

-12 Post author: spuckblase 10 July 2009 08:38AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 11 July 2009 08:11:02AM *  0 points [-]

Bayes' law time!

Suppose the event T is the fact that the universe has no causality, and the event O is that the universe is as orderly as we have observed it to be. Then P(T|O) = P(T)*P(O|T)/P(O). (In general, these probabilities explicitly do not take into account what we actually know about T and O.) I'll let you pick P(T) and P(O). You can even pick P(T) = 0.99 and P(O) = 0.01. P(O|T), however, is so small that P(T|O), which may be orders of magnitude larger, is still negligibly small.

Comment author: [deleted] 11 July 2009 08:23:16AM 0 points [-]

And a procatalepsis: if P(O|T) is not small--perhaps because orderly areas are more prominent than chaotic areas--then tell us how probability is determined, such that this orderly area is so likely. If you can't do that, then you know less than just about anybody.