spuckblase comments on Causation as Bias (sort of) - Less Wrong

-12 Post author: spuckblase 10 July 2009 08:38AM

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Comment author: spuckblase 16 July 2009 12:24:19PM 0 points [-]

Seems to me you're conflating different concepts: "being the reason for" and "being the cause of":

compare what an enemy of determinism could say: "we have no reason to listen to you if your theory is false and no reason to listen if it's true either". Now what?

Comment author: cousin_it 16 July 2009 03:09:28PM *  0 points [-]

Let's drop abstract truth-seeking for a moment and talk about instrumental values instead.

Believing in causality is useful in a causal world and neutral in an acausal one. Disbelieving in causality is harmful in a causal world and likewise neutral in an acausal one. So, if you assign nonzero credence to the existence of causality (as you implied in a comment above: "why does everybody assume I'm a die-hard believer?"), you'd do better by increasing this credence to 100%, because doing so has positive utility in the causal world (to which you have assigned nonzero credence) and doesn't matter in the acausal one.

Comment author: spuckblase 17 July 2009 08:22:06AM 0 points [-]

Well, if you stipulate that "abstract truth-seeking" has nothing whatsoever to do with my getting along in the world, then you're right I guess.

Comment author: RobinZ 16 July 2009 06:07:29PM 0 points [-]

I would say, "increasing this credence toward 100%" - without mathematical proof that the familiar sort of causation is the only such scheme that is feasible, absolute certainty is (slightly) risky. (Even with such proof, it is risky - proofs aren't perfect guarantees.)