Psychohistorian comments on Our society lacks good self-preservation mechanisms - Less Wrong

12 [deleted] 12 July 2009 09:26AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (105)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Psychohistorian 13 July 2009 07:26:44PM *  3 points [-]

Our western civilization lacks an effective long-term (order of 50 years plus) self-preservation system. Hence we should reasonably expect to either build one, or get wiped out.

This is a huge claim. You're claiming first of all that the odds of succumbing to a truly existential event are higher than not. You don't (IMO) provide evidence to support this - you provide some evidence that we may have had really catastrophic events in the past, but, again, only 100% is existential, and you do not finish off your examples - "Hitler could have won" and "Hitler could have won and created a repressive regime that lasted for the remainder of human history" are two very different claims, and the former is not existential. Second, you claim that if we take some steps, we can expect such events not to happen - it is because we lack an "effective long-term preservation system" that we can expect to be destroyed completely.

Thus, you have, to my understanding, made two claims: one about the likelihood of existential events, and one about the likelihood of us being able to mitigate them. Again, to my evaluation, you have provided compelling evidence for neither of these conclusions; indeed you've provided virtually no evidence for either of these conclusion (probability, not possibility). That is the root of my criticism of not providing solutions: you claim solutions are possible, desirable, and effective, and you do not provide any evidence to support this claim.

Thus, my criticism of your tone as "righteous" is because you seem to be making a strong, "deep" claim without providing adequate supporting evidence or argument. It is not a criticism of your word choice. I have absolutely no problem with people posting about problems that occur to them that they don't know how to solve. I do have a problem with people making strong claims with a definitive tone without providing adequate supporting evidence.

I admit this may all hinge on a disagreement in definition over "existential." I take existential to require true obliteration. Gray goo would reach this, as would the-simulation-loses-power or every-atom-splits or humanity-is-enslaved-by-something-forever. "Nuclear holocaust kills billions and it takes ten thousand years to recover" does not count in my mind, as it is not terminal. Similarly, "Hitler reigns for ten thousand years" is also non-existential (at least for humanity as a whole); If recovery occurs, even after a fairly large gap, it does not seem to count as existential. This view is consistent with Bostrom's definition in the linked paper. With a weaker definition of existential, it is quite possible that there is no disagreement here, in which I have the (smaller) criticism that you should have clarified this at the beginning.

Comment deleted 13 July 2009 11:34:19PM [-]
Comment author: timtyler 14 July 2009 11:18:44PM *  1 point [-]

If we had actually had 6 "near misses", then that would be pertinent evidence. In which case, maybe they should be listed, their probabilities and potential impact estimated.

Comment author: Psychohistorian 14 July 2009 01:42:32AM *  1 point [-]

truly existential event

I now get what lead to this confusion. You've referred to both "existential" and "major civilizational-level catastrophes" without much effort to distinguish between the two, though they differ in both extent and probability by a few orders of magnitude. I assumed from the Bostrom paper citation and the long list of existential threats that the article in general was about existential risks, which, on a rereading, it isn't.

My concern over showing that something could reasonably be done remains, but you do provide appropriate evidence regarding civilization-level catastrophes. It might be worth a sentence or two clarifying that your concern is civ-level or greater, rather than specifically existential, though I may be the only one who misread the focus here.