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timtyler comments on Our society lacks good self-preservation mechanisms - Less Wrong
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By all means, discuss the risks we face. However, my council is to bear in mind the sociological explanation for the "the end is nigh" phenomenon. 2012 isn't the first year in which the end of the world has been predictied.
Are you actually concerned about the risk? Or are you attempting to signal to others what a fine fellow you are by alerting them to potential danger. Or is it that you wish to meet and form alliances with other people who want to help with the fine and noble cause of helping to SAVE THE WORLD? We understand the sociological explanation for the "DOOM" bias. Let us therefore exercise due caution in its immediate vicinity.
You mean that the idea that the end of the world is nigh is a classical failed model - much like geocentrism was...?
You are not introducing data that distinguishes the hypothesis that the cause of saving the world is worthwhile from the hypothesis that it's but an attire, serving status and rationalization thereof. It's name-calling, not an argument.
The argument was being made that "so many other people argue the other way around".
Lots of people arguing something is not a very good reason for thinking it is true. Ideas can become popular because they are good at spreading, not because of their truth value.
In the case of risks, it is pretty obvious how this could happen. Warning people about risks has a positive effect on your reputation.
It is well known to psychologists that humans concoct risks when they are not real for signalling purposes:
"Psychologists have dubbed the phenomenon The Boy Who Cried Wolf Effect, named after Aesop's fable about a shepherd who fakes wolf attacks. In real life, experts say, these "shepherds," mostly women, aren't acting out of boredom. These damsels in distress are very often motivated by an intense desire for attention and may feel unfairly neglected by those close to them, often romantic partners. Others are simply crying out to a world they feel ignores them."
I do not know to what extent memetic and evolutionary psychology explanations explain the observed effect. My estimate - from what I have seen - is that the extent is probably quite large. So: I think that discussion of the extent to which these beliefs may be being caused by signalling-related biases is quite appropriate.
Under this model, agents exaggerate the risks, and tell others about those risks, which makes them feel good. It also makes the recipients grateful. They then go on to infect others with the DOOM meme.
The infected agents construct elaborate rationales to explain the repeated historical failures of the DOOM predictions to come true. Yes, all those other folk who thought the same thing were wrong - but this time it is different, because ...
Your argument is that it's plausible that the idea is propagating independently of its truth (which is obviously true, when the idea is construed at the level of crude approximation), but it's not an argument against the idea's truth, especially if the idea is recreated apart from its fame.
Also, your version of the idea is about fuzzies, while ours is about utility, prompting different kinds of actions. The empty buzz of doomsaying was around for a long time, never crossing over towards serious study.
The idea that the DOOM meme is a plague is indeed an argument against its truth value. DOOM being ancient and persistent argues for its basis in human universals, rather than it being a realistic assessment of historical events. If DOOM was a new phenomenon, that might make it a more interesting object of study - but I don't see credible evidence supporting that. DOOM is clearly ancient - see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypticism
As for "fuzzies" vs "utility" - that just seems like an attempt to rubbish my position. Those who think they are going to RAISE THE ALARM and help SAVE THE WORLD remind me of "Total Recall":
"What's bullshit, Mr. Quaid? That you're having a paranoid episode triggered by acute neuro-chemical trauma? Or that you're really an invincible secret agent from Mars who's the victim of an interplanetary conspiracy to make him think he's a lowly construction worker?"
Pirsig: The world's greatest fool may say the Sun is shining, but that doesn't make it dark out. Reversed stupidity is not intelligence.
I am not sure my message is getting through. Apocalyptic cults have a long history - and they have been studied by scientists. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_cult
It is not particularly surprising that we see some modern incarnations that embrace the latest instruments of destruction.
Are the DOOM-mongers interested in this? Not AFAICS. All you will hear about from them is the DOOM. After all, what could possibly be more important than THE END OF THE WORLD? You should go and warn your loved-ones about the danger immediately!
People who were shouting that the Sun is shining were actually fools, as certified by scientific research. Still, the message remains valid. Also, the fact that they happen to believe in something that is true doesn't make them right if they believe it for reasons other than that it's true.