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HalFinney comments on Good Quality Heuristics - Less Wrong
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The problem is that you are more likely to know how things turned out for successful people than for unsuccessful ones. A policy which has a large chance of disaster but a small chance of great success might appear to be very good under this heuristic, since it worked great for everyone you've heard of.
Excellent point. I was thinking more in terms of social strategies, which don't seem to have devastating black swan outcomes in the way that "guaranteed" gambling or investment strategies do. Is there a pithy way to make that distinction?