Grognor comments on The Strangest Thing An AI Could Tell You - Less Wrong

81 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 15 July 2009 02:27AM

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Comment author: Grognor 29 September 2011 05:15:31AM 2 points [-]

Still, given the negligible prior for "luck", isn't it far, far more reasonable to just figure that there are "lottery-winners" like yourself, and you're just a member of the good extreme end of the bell curve, and there's nothing unusual or psychogenic about it?

The answer to my question is yes.

See also: tropisms, which would be a necessary condition for being on one end of the bell curve, but would still be weak evidence for actually predicting that someone with a high degree of positive tropisms would end up bizarrely fortunate.