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HalFinney comments on Causes of disagreements - Less Wrong
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Right, but realistically most of the time people start with the assumption that they are right. Also consider that probably more than 50% of people think they're smarter than average, and probably the better advice is to start off most disagreements assuming you're wrong!
And most of the people around here are right!
Maybe a better heuristic is to consider whether your degree of assurance in your position is more or less than your average degree of assurance over all topics on which you might encounter disagreements. Hopefully there would be less of a bias on this question of whether you are more confident than usual. Then, if everyone adopted the policy of believing themselves if they are unusually confident, and believing the other person if they are less confident than usual, average accuracy would increase.