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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Are You Anosognosic? - Less Wrong
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The ability to update on evidence is different from level of certainty. If I'm absolutely certain about something, I accept any bet on it being true. If I'm merely unable to update my belief but I'm not absolutely certain, I will only accept moderate bets, but I'll do that long after any reasonable trust in the statements should've been eliminated by the evidence.
Okay, true. I was thinking about it backwards; absolute certainty does, of course, lead to an inability to update (which is why we don't use 1 and 0 as probabilities).
Out of curiousity, which proposition do you have higher confidence in: "No being fitting the standard definitions of God exists" or "My left arm is not paralyzed"?
I don't know: these probabilities are not technically defined, so I'm unable to compute them, and too low for my intuition to compare.
For satisfying SoullessAutomaton's curiosity I think phrasing it differently would have been better: which one would you bet (say, $100) if you had to do and could only pick one? (Assuming that both questions would get truthfully answered immediately after making the bet. It's just so that you wouldn't pick one of these just because the question seems more interesting.)
This is a trivial transformation that I don't see how could change the interpretation of the question.
Is it to say, if you had to make such a bet (at a gunpoint, if you will), you'd be indifferent and might as well flip a coin to choose? If so, fair enough. If not, what's more to it? (Assuming you don't want to get killed on refusing to take the bet.)
I could as well flip a coin.