Maybe its not the best assumption. But if Omega is running simulations you should have some expectation of the probability of you being a simulation and making it proportional to the number of simulations vs. real you's seems reasonable.

I don't think this is going to work.

Consider a variation of 'counterfactual mugging' where Omega asks for $101 if heads but only gives back $100 if (tails and) it predicts the player would have paid up. Suppose that, for whatever reason, Omega runs 2 simulations of you rather than just 1. Then by the logic above, you should believe you are a simulation with probability 2/3, and so because 2x100 > 1x101, you should pay up. This is 'intuitively wrong' because if you choose to play this game many times then Omega will just take more and more of your money.

In counterfactual mugging (the original version, that is), to be 'reflectively consistent', you need to pay up regardless of whether Omega's simulation is in some obscure sense 'subjectively continuous' with you.

Let me characterize your approach to this problem as follows: 1. You classify each possible state of the game as either being 'you' or 'not you'. 2. You decide what to do on the basis of the assumption that you are a sample of one drawn from a uniform distribution over the set of states classified as being 'you'.

Note that this approach gets the answer wrong for the absent-minded driver problem unless you can somehow force yourself to believe that the copy of you at the second intersection is really a mindless robot whose probability of turning is (for whatever reason) guaranteed to be the same as yours.