CuSithBell comments on Timeless Decision Theory: Problems I Can't Solve - Less Wrong

39 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 July 2009 12:02AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (153)

Sort By: Best

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: CuSithBell 17 June 2011 01:44:12AM 0 points [-]

Should you pay the money even if you're not told about the simulations, because Omega is a good predictor (perhaps because it's using simulations)?

Comment author: Matt_Young 17 June 2011 01:48:12AM * 0 points [-]

If I judge the probability that I am a simulation or equivalent construct to be greater than 1/499500, yes.

(EDIT: Er, make that 1/999000, actually. What's the markup code for strikethrough 'round these parts?)

(EDIT 2: Okay, I'm posting too quickly. It should be just 10^-6, straight up. If I'm a figment then the $1000 isn't real disutility.)

(EDIT 3: ARGH. Sorry. 24 hours without sleep here. I might not be the sim, duh. Correct calculations:

u(pay|sim) = 10^6; u(~pay|sim) = 0; u(pay|~sim) = -1000; u(~pay|~sim) = 0

u(~pay) = 0; u(pay) = P(sim) * 10^6 - P(~sim) * (1000) = 1001000 * P(sim) - 1000

pay if P(sim) > 1/1001.

Double-checking... triple-checking... okay, I think that's got it. No... no... NOW that's got it.)