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Jonathan_Graehl comments on Timeless Decision Theory: Problems I Can't Solve - Less Wrong
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Harsher dilemmas (more meaningful stake, loss from an unreciprocated cooperation that may not be recoverable in the remaining iterations) would make me increasingly hesitant to assume "this person is probably like me".
This makes me feel like I'm in "no true Scotsman" territory; nobody "like me" would fail to optimistically attempt cooperation. But if caring more about the difference in outcomes makes me less optimistic about other-similarity, then in a hypothetical where I am matched up against essentially myself (but I don't know this), I defeat myself exactly when it matters - when the payoff is the highest.
and this is exactly the problem: If your behavior on the prisoner's dilemma changes with the size of the outcome, then you aren't really playing the prisoner's dilemma. Your calculation in the low-payoff case was being confused by other terms in your utility function, terms for being someone who cooperates -- terms that didn't scale.
Yes, my point was that my variable skepticism is surely evidence of bias or rationalization, and that we can't learn much from "mild" PD. I do also agree that warm fuzzies from being a cooperator don't scale.