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brazil84 comments on Shut Up And Guess - Less Wrong
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Possibly part of the loss aversion is the desire not to look foolish. I mean, if the teacher is reviewing your exam results, and he sees you answered 100 questions correctly and said "don't know" for the rest, then you look like a pretty smart and modest guy compared to the schmuck who answered 125 questions correctly and 25 questions incorrectly.
Probably in our evolutionary history, if you looked foolish it was bad news.
But anyway, I am mainly posting in this thread to state that as an attorney I can attest that loss aversion is a big issue in civil litigation. A lot of people are scared to death of going to court and losing even when the downside is pretty minimal. The most successful attorneys I know (at least on the Plaintiffs' side) lose in various ways on a regular basis.
Considering our evolutionary history, why would such an action look foolish? If you come up with a just so story, consider making up a similar story for the alternative.
Well do you agree it looks more foolish to be wrong than to say "I don't know."?
Depends on the context. If guessing is clearly useful, then not guessing might be seen as foolish.
Well that's true of pretty much any generalization about human nature. Let me put the question slightly differently:
Do you agree that generally speaking it looks more foolish to be wrong than to say "I don't know."?
Sure.
Ok, why do you think so? I think it's because being wrong undermines your credibility and/or reputation for competence.