pjeby comments on Shut Up And Guess - Less Wrong

79 Post author: Yvain 21 July 2009 04:04AM

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Comment author: pjeby 21 July 2009 04:56:33AM 2 points [-]

Well, the book I read also emphasized that even if you had no clue, you still couldn't lose anything by guessing; on average it would just come out the same as if you left it blank, so you might as well give it a try.

But I can certainly understand why this is easier to get in the context of a 4- or 5-answer question than 2. To understand the true/false case, you need to understand at least a little about calibrated probabilities.