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Warrigal comments on Shut Up And Guess - Less Wrong
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This reminds me of an infamous chemistry exam that no longer existed at my college by the time I got there but had passed into the student lore. For each question, you would first mark your answer (multiple choice, 4 or 5 choices), and then mark a confidence option. These were "high confidence" (5 points if right, -3 if wrong), "low confidence" (3 points if right, 0 if wrong), and "I don't know, give me a point" (1 point regardless of what answer is marked).
This exam was not popular with the students.
For those who don't feel like running the numbers, "I don't know" is the best option when you think the probability of your answer being correct is between 20% and 33%, "low confidence" is the best when you think the probability is between 33% and 60%, and "high confidence" is the best when you think the probability is between 60% and 100%.
If your probability doesn't fall between 20% and 100%, you're doing something wrong.