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GuySrinivasan comments on Shut Up And Guess - Less Wrong
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Edit: In sum, since there will be at least 30ish questions unknown, then losing any points at all by guessing is unlikely enough that you'd need to be quite unusually well calibrated to justify not-guessing to raise e.g. probability of getting over 70% given that you know (99% confidence) you've already got exactly 71%.
You're right. I've edited my comment with the cause of my error.
Interesting. I edited my comment to summarize it greatly, since I no longer think I'm trying to convince someone who is wildly wrong on the probability. :) But now my edit's reverted.