ArthurB comments on Shut Up And Guess - Less Wrong

79 Post author: Yvain 21 July 2009 04:04AM

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Comment author: ArthurB 21 July 2009 03:42:59PM *  2 points [-]

On this page, the cumulative refers to the probability of obtaining at most p successes. You want to run it with 30 and 9 which gives you the right answer, 2.14%

Or you could put in 30 and 20 which gives you the complement.

What is lower than 1% is the probability of getting 8 or less right answers.

Comment author: Yvain 21 July 2009 03:47:27PM 1 point [-]

Oh, I see how they did that. Thanks. Original post edited.