Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Shut Up And Guess - Less Wrong

79 Post author: Yvain 21 July 2009 04:04AM

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Comment author: SoullessAutomaton 21 July 2009 11:15:28AM 13 points [-]

I vaguely recall reading an anecdote about a similar testing scheme where you had to give an actual numerical confidence value for each answer. Saying you were 100% confident of an answer that was wrong would give you minus infinity points.

I bet that would be even less popular with students.

Comment author: bill 21 July 2009 02:48:57PM *  20 points [-]

I've given those kinds of tests in my decision analysis and my probabilistic analysis courses (for the multiple choice questions). Four choices, logarithmic scoring rule, 100% on the correct answer gives 1 point, 25% on the correct answer gives zero points, and 0% on the correct answer gives negative infinity.

Some students loved it. Some hated it. Many hated it until they realized that e.g. they didn't need 90% of the points to get an A (I was generous on the points-to-grades part of grading).

I did have to be careful; minus infinity meant that on one question you could fail the class. I did have to be sure that it wasn't a mistake, that they actually meant to put a zero on the correct answer.

If you want to try, you might want to try the Brier scoring rule instead of the logarithmic; it has a similar flavor without the minus infinity hassle.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 21 July 2009 06:51:09PM 11 points [-]

minus infinity meant that on one question you could fail the class

...wow. Well, I guess that's one way to teach people to avoid infinite certainty. Reminiscent of Jeffreyssai. Did that happen to a lot of students?

Comment author: bill 22 July 2009 09:22:43PM 11 points [-]

Some students started putting zeros on the first assignment or two. However, all they needed was to see a few people get nailed putting 0.001 on the right answer (usually on the famous boy-girl probability problem) and people tended to start spreading their probability assignments. Some people never learn, though, so once in a while people would fail. I can only remember three in eight years.

My professor ran a professional course like this. One year, one of the attendees put 100% on every question on every assignment, and got every single answer correct. The next year, someone attended from the same company, and decided he was going to do the same thing. Quite early, he got minus infinity. My professor's response? "They both should be fired."

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 23 July 2009 05:05:09AM 26 points [-]

I cannot begin to say how vehemently I disagree with the idea of firing the first attendee. If I found out that your professor had fired them I would fire your professor.

Sure, it has to be an expected utility fail if you take the problem literally, because of how little it would have cost to put only 99.99% on each correct answer, and how impossible it would be to be infinitely certain of getting every answer right. But this fails to take into account the out-of-context expected utility of being AWESOME.

Firing the second guy is fine.

Comment author: TraderJoe 27 April 2012 08:38:39AM *  0 points [-]

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Comment author: TraderJoe 25 April 2012 01:31:10PM *  0 points [-]

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Comment author: SoullessAutomaton 21 July 2009 10:45:12PM 4 points [-]

Given that this was stated as used in "decision analysis" and "probabilistic analysis" courses I would hope not...

It's rare that one has a chance to make the structure of an exam itself teach the material, independent of the content, heh.