Cyan comments on Are calibration and rational decisions mutually exclusive? (Part one) - Less Wrong

3 Post author: Cyan 23 July 2009 05:15AM

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Comment author: Psychohistorian 23 July 2009 06:00:51AM 5 points [-]

I don't get it.

I admit my math background is limited to upper-division undergraduate, and I admit I could have tried harder to make sense of the jargon, but after reading this a few times, I really just don't get what your point is, or even what kind of thing your point is supposed to be.

Comment author: Cyan 23 July 2009 08:38:51PM 2 points [-]

The short short version of this part of the argument reads:

What Bayesians call calibration, frequentists call valid confidence coverage. Bayesian posterior probability intervals do not have valid confidence coverage in general; priors that can guarantee it do not exist.