1) Yes. I'm just over the hump of stage 3 now. Judging by my past life and the current first derivative, this stage will definitely end soon and transition into something like stage 4, so your description is spot on.

2) I don't know how to convert anticipation of future belief into current belief in general. This must prove I am Bayesian-irrational. But I do know how to speed up cycling through the stages: compress time. Read more, think more, solve more problems, have more experiences. Achieve critical mass to level up.